基本面仍有利于利率下行，基准国债ETF(511100)上涨0.12%，近5个交易日净流入3.59亿元

Group 1 - The benchmark government bond ETF (511100) has shown a price increase of 0.12%, reaching 107.38 yuan as of December 9, 2025, with a trading volume of 8.076 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 72.71% [1] - Over the past five trading days, the benchmark government bond ETF has attracted a total inflow of 359 million yuan, bringing its total size to 11.099 billion yuan [1] - The average daily trading volume for the benchmark government bond ETF over the past month was 9.505 billion yuan, indicating active market participation [1] Group 2 - Since its inception, the benchmark government bond ETF has achieved a maximum monthly return of 2.67%, with the longest streak of monthly gains lasting 9 months and a total gain of 6.94% [3] - The historical probability of profitability for holding the ETF for one year is 100%, with a monthly profitability probability of 70.72% [3] - The analysis from China International Capital Corporation suggests that fiscal policy is likely to remain positive next year, with limited expansion of the fiscal deficit rate, indicating a weak recovery in the domestic economy that may favor a downtrend in interest rates [3] Group 3 - The benchmark government bond ETF tracks the Shanghai Stock Exchange's benchmark market-making government bond index, selecting all government bonds from the exchange's benchmark market-making list [3] - The index includes a diversified selection of bonds across various key durations, with an overall duration of 9.37, indicating a focus on mid-term government bonds [3]