经济学家宋清辉：未来中国有能力继续保持外储规模的基本稳定

Core Viewpoint - The continuous growth of China's foreign exchange reserves indicates a stable status in international balance of payments, cross-border capital flows, exchange rates, and asset price changes, providing a strategic buffer for the country against external shocks and ensuring the stability of the RMB exchange rate [1][6]. Group 1: Foreign Exchange Reserves - As of the end of November, China's foreign exchange reserves reached 33,464 billion USD, marking a month-on-month increase of 30 million USD or 0.09%, and achieving the highest level since December 2015 [3]. - The sustained stability of foreign reserves suggests that China maintains a robust position in international payments and capital flows, with expectations for continued stability at high levels [3][7]. - The increase in foreign reserves is attributed to factors such as macroeconomic data from major economies and expectations regarding monetary policy, leading to a decline in the US dollar index [3][8]. Group 2: Exchange Rate Dynamics - The global currency market has seen a trend of a weakening US dollar, with the dollar index dropping 0.29% to 99.4 in November, while major non-USD currencies have shown mixed performance [6][8]. - The offshore RMB appreciated significantly, surpassing 7.09 against the USD, reflecting a cumulative increase of over 3,500 basis points since its low in April [6]. - Analysts predict that the RMB exchange rate will remain stable or slightly stronger in December, with expectations of fluctuations within the range of 7.05 to 7.1 [8]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The National Foreign Exchange Administration emphasizes that China's economy remains stable and progressing, supporting the future stability of foreign exchange reserves [7]. - China's commitment to a market-oriented exchange rate mechanism and ongoing financial market opening will attract foreign investment, contributing to stable foreign capital inflows [7]. - The strong manufacturing sector and complete supply chain in China are expected to ensure a continued trade surplus, further supporting foreign exchange inflows [7].