重提跨周期——政治局会议通稿要点

Core Viewpoint - The overall macro policy framework is expected to remain stable, with a focus on the rhythm and direction of economic work for the upcoming year [2]. Group 1: Economic Policy Direction - The Politburo meeting emphasizes the need to better coordinate domestic economic work and international trade struggles, indicating that domestic economic stability will be prioritized during intensified international trade conflicts [2]. - The meeting introduces the concept of developing new productive forces tailored to local conditions and advancing the construction of a unified national market, highlighting the importance of optimizing local government behavior and addressing market competition [2]. - The goal for economic growth is likely to remain around 5%, necessitating the use of existing policies and the introduction of new policies, with a recent announcement of 500 billion yuan in new financial tools aimed at project investment to kickstart economic activity [2][3]. Group 2: Fiscal and Monetary Policy - The meeting reiterates the implementation of a more proactive macro policy, continuing with an active fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy, while suggesting a slight increase in fiscal policy space [3]. - The emphasis on cross-cycle regulation and the integration of existing and new policies indicates that the policy rhythm will be crucial to monitor, with a focus on utilizing existing policy space unless external conditions change [3]. Group 3: Domestic Demand and Consumption - Domestic demand is prioritized as the primary focus of economic work, with a strong emphasis on improving people's livelihoods and promoting consumption, aligning with the spirit of the Fourth Plenary Session [3]. - The meeting highlights the construction of a strong domestic market as a foundation for responding to complex external environments, requiring macro policies to invest more in improving livelihoods and enhancing consumer capacity and willingness [3]. Group 4: Key Work Priorities - The meeting outlines eight key priorities for the upcoming year, maintaining the same order for the top four: domestic demand, technology/industry, reform, and openness, while risk prevention has dropped to the eighth position, indicating a reduction in systemic risk challenges [4]. - The real estate sector, which previously faced significant risks, is notably absent from the meeting's discussions, reflecting a structural adjustment that has reduced its contribution to GDP from 17.7% in 2017 to an estimated 9.0% by next year [4].