国际清算银行警告「黄金与股市走势趋同，可能是泡沫信号，要警惕市场突然回调」，对此你怎么看？

Core Insights - The latest report from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) warns that retail investors' "buying frenzy" is shifting gold from a safe-haven asset to a speculative one, marking the first time in at least 50 years that both gold and stock markets have entered an "explosive zone" simultaneously [1][3][6] - Traditionally, gold and stock markets exhibit a negative correlation, but in 2025, this relationship has reversed, with both asset classes experiencing significant gains [1][6] - The report highlights the unprecedented synchronized surge of these assets, which poses substantial risks to market stability [1][3] Market Dynamics - In 2025, the correlation between gold and the S&P 500 has risen to a positive value of 0.22, indicating that both assets are now moving in tandem [6] - Central bank purchases of gold have provided a solid foundation for gold prices, while retail and institutional investors have increasingly treated gold as a speculative asset rather than a safe haven [6][9] - The AI technology boom and expectations of monetary easing have driven stock market gains, creating a "resonance" effect with gold prices [8][9] Economic Concerns - The optimism surrounding AI has begun to detach from fundamental realities, leading to concerns about a "circular financing chain" in the AI sector [8] - The weakening of the US dollar and expectations of interest rate cuts have created a favorable environment for both the stock market and gold [8][9] - The global economy is facing "asset scarcity" anxiety, with rising concerns over the stability of traditional assets and the creditworthiness of the dollar [9][11] Potential Risks - The BIS warns that if both the stock market and gold were to crash simultaneously, investors would lose their safety net, which could have dire implications for global foreign exchange reserves [11][13] - The interconnectedness of the AI sector's valuation risks and liquidity changes could lead to a sudden market breakdown if optimistic expectations are not met [11][13] - Historical precedents suggest that synchronized asset surges often end in severe corrections, as seen in past market bubbles [14]