全球稀土大洗牌：美国囤货18个月，欧盟急建储备，中国稳坐钓鱼台

Core Viewpoint - The recent tightening of rare earth exports by China has raised global concerns, particularly in the military, wind energy, and electric vehicle sectors, highlighting the strategic importance of these resources [3][9][12]. Group 1: Strategic Importance of Rare Earths - Rare earths consist of 17 metals essential for various technologies, including mobile chips, missiles, and wind turbines [3]. - China's management of rare earths is rooted in its recognition of these materials as strategic resources, akin to oil in the Middle East [3][22]. - The U.S. military's annual consumption of rare earths is less than 0.8% of global production, indicating a lower dependency than perceived [9]. Group 2: Regulatory Developments - In June 2024, China introduced the "Rare Earth Management Regulations," implementing total quantity control over mining and refining [5]. - The export control measures announced in April 2024 are part of a broader strategy to manage rare earth resources effectively [5][16]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Adjustments - The U.S. military and electric vehicle industries have expressed significant concern over their reliance on rare earths, with some companies exploring alternative sources and technologies [9][14]. - The European Union has initiated plans to diversify its rare earth sources, yet remains heavily reliant on China for critical materials [12][20]. Group 4: Economic Implications - The price dynamics of rare earths vary significantly, with heavy rare earths like neodymium and dysprosium remaining stable, while light rare earths have seen price drops due to increased production from other countries [18]. - China's shift from exporting raw materials to selling finished products has led to a significant market share in rare earth magnets, accounting for 70% of the global market [20][21]. Group 5: Future Outlook - By 2030, the global rare earth landscape is expected to shift from China's dominance to a more collaborative model, emphasizing the need for adherence to regulations [22]. - The U.S. Department of Defense is investing in a complete supply chain for rare earths, indicating a long-term strategy to reduce dependency on foreign sources [20].