美联储新掌门短期难掀巨浪，但势在必行的变革将影响深远

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming nomination of the Federal Reserve Chair by President Trump is expected to have a more profound long-term impact on the central bank than immediate market reactions suggest [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reactions - The market is focused on the expectation that the new chair will be more inclined to lower interest rates than the current chair, Jerome Powell [1]. - Kevin Hassett is highlighted as a leading candidate, perceived as the most dovish option among the five shortlisted candidates [1]. - If Hassett is appointed, it could lead to adjustments in market pricing, including lower short-term Treasury yields, a weaker dollar, and rising inflation expectations [1]. Group 2: Challenges for the New Chair - Any new chair will require time to establish authority within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which is currently divided and lacks a unified strategic vision [2]. - The new chair will face challenges related to the committee's reliance on lagging data for policy decisions, complicating the resolution of issues like labor market weaknesses [2]. - The committee members are sensitive to accusations of yielding to political pressure, which may lead to resistance against a new chair's initiatives [2]. Group 3: Need for Reform - There is a pressing need for reform within the Federal Reserve, as recent years have seen failures in analysis, forecasting, policy execution, and communication [2][3]. - A Gallup poll indicates that only 9% of Americans rate the Federal Reserve's performance as "excellent," highlighting the need for improvements to maintain its independence [3]. - The new chair must implement reforms that include clarifying inflation targets, updating communication practices, enhancing accountability, and shifting focus from demand management to supply-side development [3].