尿素： 下游需求平稳 出厂价坚挺

Group 1: Coal Industry - Domestic coal production has increased to an average of 4 million tons per day, with Ordos region's coal operating rate at 78% and Yulin region at 46%, indicating a stable supply [1] - Coal prices have started to decline from high levels, while demand from power plants has shown a gradual increase, with current port inventories rising to over 26 million tons [1][2] - The operating rate of coal-based urea production is at 87.53%, up 4 percentage points from last month, with daily production at 19.8 million tons, indicating a further loosening of domestic supply [2] Group 2: Urea Market - Urea prices are holding steady at 1660-1700 RMB per ton, with cash flow profits for coal-based urea around 200 RMB per ton for fixed bed units and 280 RMB per ton for gas flow bed units [2] - Urea inventory levels are high, with total inventory at 1.2905 million tons, down 73,400 tons from the previous week, but still at historically high levels [5] - The demand for urea is supported by increased procurement activities in Northeast China and the upcoming spring fertilizer production in Central China, which may provide some price support [4][7] Group 3: Compound Fertilizer - The operating rate of compound fertilizer plants is steadily increasing, with Northeast regions actively procuring fertilizers, which strengthens the demand for urea [4] - The fourth batch of export quotas totaling 600,000 tons has been issued, but the impact on the domestic market is expected to be short-lived as the focus returns to domestic fundamentals [4] - As of the end of November, overall inventory levels for compound fertilizers are expected to reach around 30%, indicating a stable supply situation [4]