降息只是烟雾弹？鲍威尔周三或宣布450亿美元购债计划，一场静默救市已启动

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a 25 basis point interest rate cut, but a more significant change may come from a new asset purchase plan aimed at addressing liquidity issues in the financial system [1][2][4]. Group 1: Interest Rate and Market Reactions - Since March 2023, the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates 11 times, reaching the highest levels in over two decades [4]. - The market has almost fully priced in the expected rate cut at the upcoming meeting on December 10, with discussions about potential further cuts in 2024 [4][5]. - Market focus on the interest rate cut may overshadow critical changes in the Federal Reserve's balance sheet [4][7]. Group 2: Asset Purchase Plan - A report predicts that the Federal Reserve may announce a monthly purchase plan of $45 billion in U.S. Treasury securities, starting in January 2026 [2][4]. - This purchase plan is not aimed at stimulating the economy but rather at providing emergency support to the financial system due to liquidity shortages [2][5]. - The report highlights a natural growth demand of at least $20 billion per month for the Fed's balance sheet to maintain liquidity [7]. Group 3: Liquidity Concerns - The Federal Reserve's balance sheet has shrunk by approximately $2.4 trillion due to quantitative tightening, leading to significant liquidity withdrawal from the financial system [5][22]. - Recent volatility in the repurchase market indicates that banks are facing a shortage of cash reserves, which could lead to a liquidity crisis if not addressed [10][23]. - The Fed's actions are seen as necessary to prevent a repeat of the liquidity issues experienced in September 2019 [10][26]. Group 4: Market Implications - The anticipated asset purchases are expected to lower short-term interest rates and stabilize the money market rate structure [27][29]. - An increase in liquidity may exert downward pressure on the U.S. dollar, aligning with the Treasury's stance against a too-strong dollar [29]. - The focus on short-term Treasury securities in the purchase plan may lead to a steepening of the yield curve, benefiting banks' net interest margins [29].