林毅夫：2035年之前实现年均5%-6%的增长是可能的

Core Viewpoint - The essence of the "latecomer advantage" lies in the gap between developing countries and developed nations, suggesting that achieving an average growth rate of 5%-6% before 2035 is feasible for China [6][10]. Economic Growth Logic - Since the reform and opening up, China's rapid economic growth can be attributed to continuous improvements in productivity and the emergence of new productive forces, which require innovation in existing technologies and the rise of higher value-added industries [1][5]. - Developing countries can leverage the latecomer advantage by adopting and assimilating advanced technologies from developed nations, which is less costly and risky compared to self-innovation [3][4]. Future Development Prospects - There are pessimistic views regarding China's future growth, primarily due to aging population and US-China tensions, leading to the "China peak theory" [6][7]. - The potential for future growth should be assessed based on the remaining gap with developed countries rather than the duration of utilizing the latecomer advantage [7][9]. Historical Context and Growth Potential - Historical examples show that countries like Germany, Japan, and South Korea achieved significant growth rates when they had similar gaps with the US, suggesting that China could also achieve an average GDP growth rate of 8% over the next 16 years [7][8]. - China possesses unique advantages not available to those earlier countries, such as the Fourth Industrial Revolution characterized by AI and big data, which have shorter R&D cycles and lower capital requirements [8][9]. Challenges and Opportunities - Despite challenges like population aging and technological restrictions from the US, China has the potential to achieve an average growth rate of 5%-6% before 2035, with a longer-term potential of 3%-4% from 2036 to 2049 [9][10]. - By 2049, if China's GDP per capita reaches half of that of the US, it could lead to improved Sino-US relations, as the economic dynamics would shift in favor of mutual cooperation [12][14].