2025年末冲刺！对冲基金净杠杆飙至99%高位，连续7周疯狂加仓全球股市、美股占大头

Core Insights - The S&P 500 index is just 30 basis points away from its historical closing record, with multiple market forces reshaping the investment landscape as the year approaches its end [1] - The consensus around the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy has shifted from "unlikely to cut rates" to a "100% probability of a cut," with expectations of a "hawkish cut" [1] Group 1: Market Trends - Hedge funds have net bought global stocks for the seventh consecutive week, with a buy-to-sell ratio of 1.3 to 1 [1] - The CTA strategy funds have shifted from net sellers to buyers, with a Goldman Sachs model indicating a purchase of $9 billion in global stocks this week, raising overall exposure to $110 billion [1] - Corporate buyback activity is notably high, with trading volume 80% above the daily average for the same period in 2024 [1][10] Group 2: Sector Performance - There is a significant rotation of funds from defensive sectors to cyclical stocks, with utilities down 4.83% and REITs down 2.58%, while cyclical stocks rose by 5.01% [3] - Quantum computing stocks have seen a five-day increase of 14.61%, and non-profitable tech stocks rose by 9.61% [3] Group 3: Hedge Fund Activity - Hedge funds' total gross leverage increased by 1.5% to 286.6%, with net leverage rising by 0.4 percentage points to 81.2%, reaching the 99th percentile for the past year [4] - All major regions, except for Asian emerging markets, experienced net buying, with North America leading the gains [4] Group 4: CTA Strategy Insights - The CTA strategy funds are expected to become buyers across various market scenarios, with projected purchases of $29.8 billion in flat conditions and $31.2 billion in rising conditions [6] - In a flat market scenario, the expected deployment of funds for one week and one month is similar, indicating that CTA strategies may soon reach an equilibrium state [9] Group 5: Corporate Buybacks and IPOs - Corporate buyback activity is at a peak, with trading volume significantly higher than both 2023 and 2024 averages, primarily in financials, consumer discretionary, and technology sectors [10] - In North America, new issuances and follow-on offerings reached $9.95 billion this week, with a year-to-date total of $390.2 billion, maintaining a favorable supply-demand balance for stock prices [10] Group 6: Investor Sentiment - Retail investor sentiment has improved significantly, with the AAII sentiment survey showing a bullish percentage increase of 12.3 points to 44.3% [11] - The CNN Fear and Greed Index rose from 18 to 40, marking the highest level since the end of October [13] - Global equity funds saw a net inflow of $8 billion, although this is down from the previous week's $18 billion [13]