21专访｜野村日本首席经济学家：警惕日美货币政策反向市场风险

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is expected to raise interest rates in December, with potential implications for both domestic and global markets, particularly in the context of contrasting monetary policies with the U.S. Federal Reserve [1][3]. Group 1: Interest Rate Expectations - The BOJ is anticipated to increase the interest rate to 0.75% in December, with a subsequent hike expected in January 2027 [2][3]. - The last rate hike occurred in January 2023, raising the rate from 0.25% to 0.5%, marking the highest borrowing cost in 17 years [1][2]. Group 2: Economic Performance - Japan's GDP contracted by 1.8% year-on-year in Q3 2023, indicating a return to negative growth since Q1 2024 [2][4]. - The economic downturn is attributed to a decline in housing investment and a drop in exports, alongside stagnant private consumption and business investment [4][5]. Group 3: Inflation Dynamics - Inflation in Japan is primarily driven by supply-side factors, with over half attributed to these influences rather than demand-side factors [2][6]. - There is an expectation that inflation will transition from cost-push to demand-driven by 2026, aided by government fiscal policies [2][5]. Group 4: Market Reactions and Risks - The market has already priced in the BOJ's anticipated rate hike, suggesting limited risk of significant market volatility following the adjustment [3][4]. - The potential for a "Japan-U.S. monetary policy divergence" could lead to market fluctuations, especially with the U.S. Federal Reserve expected to announce rate cuts around the same time [4][5]. Group 5: Manufacturing Sector Insights - The Japanese manufacturing sector has shown signs of contraction, with the PMI recorded at 48.7, indicating ongoing challenges due to weak demand [6]. - Despite the current contraction, there are signs of improvement in sub-indices, suggesting potential for future production increases [6]. Group 6: Fiscal Policy and Debt Management - The BOJ is reducing its bond purchases, indicating a shift towards normalizing interest rates and managing its balance sheet effectively [8]. - The rise in long-term bond yields reflects fiscal policy adjustments rather than monetary policy changes, with the government focusing on selective spending and returning excess tax revenue to the public [8].