道富：五大因素支撑黄金结构性牛市周期 料2026年金价或上探至5000美元

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have reached new highs this year, with State Street Global Advisors predicting that 2025 will see the best annual performance for gold since 1979, followed by a potential stabilization in 2026 within the range of $4,000 to $4,500 per ounce. The firm identifies five key factors supporting a structural bull market for gold, including Federal Reserve easing policies, strong central bank and retail demand, ETF inflows, rising stock-bond correlation, and global debt issues, which could push gold prices towards $5,000 per ounce [1][2]. Group 1 - The global debt is projected to rise to $340 trillion by mid-2025, with government debt accounting for 30% of this total, marking a historical high. This debt level is 3 to 4 times the global GDP, raising investor concerns. Record debt combined with persistent inflation is driving long-term yields, making gold an ideal asset for hedging against duration risk and currency devaluation [1]. - The correlation between stocks and bonds has surged to a 30-year high during the post-pandemic inflation peak and the Federal Reserve's tightening cycle, enhancing gold's role in diversifying risk and hedging against left-tail risks [1]. Group 2 - Following the economic recession in 2020, gold ETF holders have redeemed shares for four consecutive years, leading to a rebound in the supply of physical gold. In 2025, demand for gold ETFs is expected to rebound, supporting financial market prices and tightening the supply-demand balance for physical gold, with significant growth potential anticipated in 2026 [2]. - The Federal Reserve has shifted to an easing policy, and a more dovish chair may be appointed in 2026. Additionally, the Trump administration's policy rhetoric and a softened U.S. stance post-liberation suggest a weakening dollar, providing dual benefits for gold [2]. - Strong retail demand for gold in China and ongoing purchases by central banks in emerging markets continue to support gold prices [2].