澳洲联储转向鹰派释放紧缩信号 国债收益率应声飙至13个月新高

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has ended a shortened rate-cutting cycle and is now assessing whether to extend the pause on interest rates or shift towards tightening, as inflation risks have shifted to the upside [1][3]. Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - RBA Governor Michele Bullock announced the decision to maintain the cash rate at 3.6%, indicating that the risk of rising prices has led to a surge in bond yields to a 13-month high [1]. - The RBA is closely monitoring whether to extend the pause on interest rates or consider a potential rate hike, with no immediate plans for rate cuts in the foreseeable future [1][5]. - The RBA's decision to keep rates unchanged follows three rate cuts earlier in the year, making it one of the shortest easing cycles among developed countries [3]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Australia's economy is nearing full capacity, with unemployment at historical lows and inflation exceeding the target range of 2-3%, prompting the RBA's cautious stance [3]. - Recent data has shown unexpected upward trends, putting pressure on the RBA to consider rate hikes if inflation continues to rise [3]. - The latest consumer price index (CPI) stands at 3.8%, with forecasts suggesting inflation may not return to target levels until mid-2027 [4]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the RBA's hawkish guidance, the Australian dollar rose by 0.3%, and government bond yields increased by up to 12 basis points, reaching their highest levels since November 2024 [1]. - The divergence in monetary policy between Australia and the U.S. has led to significant selling of Australian bonds, with the yield premium over U.S. Treasuries widening at the fastest pace since early 2020 [3].