谷歌“救”了“易中天”

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent surge in the A-share market related to AI and optical modules, driven by companies like Google and their TPU technology, which has positively impacted the valuation logic of optical module firms in China. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The A-share AI frenzy is focused on two main themes: chip manufacturing and connectivity, with companies like 中际旭创 (Inspur) and 天孚通信 (Tianfu Communication) leading the charge in optical modules [1][2] - 中际旭创, 天孚通信, and 新易盛 (NewEase) have market capitalizations of 633.3 billion, 184.2 billion, and 402.1 billion respectively as of December 8 [1] - The historical average PE ratio for the communication industry is around 15-20, raising concerns about the high valuations of optical module companies, which have seen PE ratios of 40-80 [1][2] Group 2: Google's Impact - Google's TPU technology is reshaping the AI computing landscape and is expected to drive demand for optical modules, which are essential for data transmission [2][3] - The introduction of TPU v7, which can integrate up to 9,216 chips, necessitates a significant increase in optical module deployment to maintain low latency and high bandwidth [6][10] - The demand for 1.6T optical modules is expected to rise due to Google's aggressive expansion plans, with projections indicating that 1.6T module shipments could exceed 25 million by 2026 [8][10] Group 3: Capital Expenditure Trends - Major cloud companies, including Alibaba, Tencent, and the "Big Four" in the U.S. (Google, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon), are significantly increasing their capital expenditures, which is a key indicator of optical module demand [12][14] - The total capital expenditure for the "Big Four" is projected to reach $230 billion in 2024, a 55% increase year-over-year, further supporting the growth of the optical module market [12][13] - Forecasts suggest that capital expenditures will continue to rise, with a projected 35% increase in 2026, indicating sustained demand for optical modules [15] Group 4: Company Performance and Valuation - 中际旭创 reported a Q3 revenue of 10.22 billion yuan, with a year-over-year growth of 56.83%, while 天孚通信 and 新易盛 showed lower-than-expected performance [22][23] - Despite mixed Q3 results, 中际旭创 is expected to receive a higher valuation due to its strong performance and the positive outlook driven by Google's TPU [24][25] - Analysts predict that 中际旭创's net profit will grow at a compound annual growth rate of 59% from 2025 to 2028, leading to a target price increase of 62% to 762 yuan [25][26]