百利好丨降息悬念扰动市场，黄金机遇蓄势待发

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a 25 basis point rate cut during its upcoming two-day policy meeting, with a probability of 90%, significantly up from 66% in November [1] - Analysts warn that this rate cut could be a "hawkish cut," indicating potential future tightening despite the current easing [1] - The meeting will focus on potential divisions in policy votes, updated economic forecasts, and how the Fed will manage its balance sheet to adjust market liquidity [3] Group 2 - There is a general expectation of two rate cuts next year, but the timing varies among institutions, with predictions ranging from January and April to March and June [3] - The leadership structure of the Federal Reserve may change next year, which could impact future monetary policy direction [3] - The gold market remains supported by ongoing central bank purchases, with some market participants viewing short-term price corrections as buying opportunities [3][4] Group 3 - Despite potential short-term pressures on gold prices from rising real interest rates, long-term demand for safe-haven assets and central bank purchases are expected to provide support [4] - Market views suggest that gold prices could challenge the historic level of $5,000 per ounce by the first quarter of 2026 [4] - Current gold prices are in a critical technical balance area, reflecting a cautious market weighing interest rate pressures against structural bullish factors [4]