SHUANGHUAN COMPANY(SZ:002472) Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-12-09 08:38Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a CAGR of 112% in net profit attributable to shareholders from 2020 to 2024, with a weighted ROE of 9% [1] - The company has three main business segments: gears, smart actuators, and reducers, with revenue contributions of 82%, 10%, and 8% respectively in the first half of 2025 [1] Group 1: Gear Business - The gear business is driven by technological upgrades and globalization, with an expected CAGR of 10% from 2024 to 2027 [2] - The scale of the gear industry in China exceeds 300 billion, with a CAGR of 7% from 2017 to 2021; automotive gears account for 62% of the global gear market [2] - The trend towards electric vehicles is changing the relationship between manufacturers and suppliers, creating opportunities for independent gear manufacturers [2] Group 2: Smart Actuator Business - The smart actuator business is expected to grow at a CAGR of 40% from 2024 to 2027, with applications expanding into smart home, smart automotive, and E-bike sectors [3] - The global small modulus gear market is projected to reach $1.26 billion in sales by 2024, with a CAGR of 5% from 2025 to 2031 [3] - The acquisition of SMD by the company has allowed it to enter the smart actuator market, with ongoing expansion into various downstream applications [3] Group 3: Reducer Business - The reducer business is positioned to benefit from the humanoid robot sector, with an expected market increment of approximately 90.8 billion by 2030 and a CAGR of 173% from 2025 to 2030 [4] - The company holds a 61% stake in Huan Dong Technology, a leading domestic RV reducer manufacturer, which is expected to achieve a market share of 25% by 2024 [4] - The technology capabilities of Huan Dong are extending into harmonic reducers, creating new growth opportunities [4] Group 4: Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve a CAGR of 20% in net profit attributable to shareholders from 2024 to 2027 [5] - Expected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.24 billion, 1.47 billion, and 1.77 billion respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 29, 24, and 20 [5] - The company's strong position in precision transmission gears and the growth of its smart actuator and reducer businesses are key drivers for future profitability [5]