日本央行或将加息 纽约期金一度失守4200美元大关

Group 1 - The Bank of Japan's potential interest rate hike poses a risk to gold prices, as indicated by recent statements from Governor Kazuo Ueda, who noted that low real interest rates could lead to an increase if economic conditions improve [1] - Following the announcement, gold futures in New York experienced a sharp decline, falling below $4200 per ounce before recovering slightly, closing at $4206.7, down 0.26% [1] - The market anticipates that a rate hike could lead to increased Japanese government bond yields, which may trigger a reversal of the carry trade that has favored low-yielding yen for investments in higher-yielding assets, including gold [1] Group 2 - Historical context shows that a previous rate hike by the Bank of Japan in July 2022 led to a rapid appreciation of the yen and significant market volatility, including a 12.4% drop in the Nikkei 225 index and a nearly 4% fluctuation in gold futures [2] - Analysts suggest that the potential for further rate hikes may be limited due to concerns over Japan's fiscal sustainability, as rising interest rates could increase the burden of debt servicing [3] - Recent economic data indicates that Japan's GDP contracted by 0.6% quarter-on-quarter and 2.3% year-on-year, marking the first shrinkage in six quarters, while real wages have been declining despite nominal wage increases [3] Group 3 - The long-term macroeconomic factors supporting gold prices remain intact, with expectations of a weakening U.S. dollar and ongoing concerns about U.S. fiscal issues, which could sustain demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3] - The trend of de-dollarization globally, along with central bank gold purchases and concerns over fiat currencies, is seen as a solid foundation for gold prices [4] - As of November 2023, China's gold reserves reached 74.12 million ounces, reflecting a continuous increase for 13 months, indicating strong demand for gold [4]