百利好晚盘分析：警惕鹰派降息 金价偏弱调整

Gold Market - Gold prices are currently in a critical phase, influenced by the decline in U.S. inflation data, which aligns with the Federal Reserve's expectations for a one-time impact from tariffs, strengthening market pricing for a rate cut [1] - The U.S. job market shows resilience, as indicated by initial jobless claims, which raises expectations for a hawkish rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December [1] - The Bank of Japan is likely to raise interest rates in December, which could lead to a liquidity crisis and put short-term pressure on gold prices [1] - Short-term risks for gold prices are noted, but long-term trends suggest that rising U.S. federal debt will weaken the dollar's credibility, likely pushing gold prices higher [1] - Technical indicators show that gold is currently above the 20-day moving average, with resistance at $4220 and support at $4140 [1] Oil Market - Geopolitical tensions, particularly the slow progress in Russia-Ukraine peace talks and potential U.S. actions against Venezuela, have limited short-term support for oil prices [2] - OPEC+ is maintaining its current production policy without plans for an increase in the first quarter of next year, which helps mitigate the risk of oversupply [2] - U.S. economic data presents mixed signals, with refinery utilization at 94%, indicating limited room for seasonal demand improvement [2] - Technical analysis indicates a risk of oil prices falling below the 20-day moving average, with a potential test of the $57 support level if downward momentum continues [2] U.S. Dollar Index - Recent comments from New York Fed President John Williams suggest there is still room for rate cuts, increasing expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December [3] - Current market data indicates an 89.4% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December, with only a 10.6% chance of maintaining current rates [3] - The recent U.S. government shutdown has created a data vacuum, but improvements in ADP data have eased recession concerns, providing some support for the dollar [3] Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 index has been experiencing a period of adjustment, with potential for further upward movement if it stabilizes above the 62-day moving average [5] - Current support is noted at the 49706 level [5] Copper Market - Recent trading in copper has shown small declines, indicating potential short-term downward risks [6] - The market remains bullish as long as prices stay above the 62-day moving average, with support at $5.20 [6] Iraq Oil Production - Iraq has shut down the entire production capacity of the West Qurna 2 oil field due to pipeline leaks, affecting daily output of approximately 460,000 barrels [7] Russian Gold Export Restrictions - Russia plans to limit gold bar exports starting in 2026, which may impact global gold supply dynamics [8] Bank of Japan's Bond Purchases - The Bank of Japan's Governor has indicated a willingness to increase government bond purchases if long-term interest rates experience sharp fluctuations [9]