Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-12-09 09:34Core Viewpoint - The report from Cinda Securities indicates that China National Pharmaceutical Group (Sinopharm) is nearing the end of its inefficient business adjustments, with profit improvements expected by Q3 2025. The company is benefiting from increased industry concentration and the development of innovative businesses, leading to a gradual increase in dividend payout ratios and a current valuation below historical averages. The company is rated "Buy" for the first time [1]. Group 1: Profit Improvement and Business Adjustments - By Q3 2025, the adjustment of inefficient businesses is nearing completion, resulting in a noticeable improvement in profits [1] - In Q3 2025, the sales expense ratio and management expense ratio decreased, leading to a net profit margin increase of 0.2 percentage points, with a year-on-year growth rate of 17% in net profit attributable to shareholders [1] - The company is focusing on quality improvement and efficiency enhancement in 2025, which is expected to allow for sustained profit growth beyond expectations in 2026 [1] Group 2: Industry Concentration and Growth Drivers - The concentration of the top four companies in the distribution industry has increased from 38.38% in 2019 to 42.69% in 2023, with Sinopharm's market share reaching 20.36% in 2023 [2] - The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of Sinopharm's pharmaceutical distribution revenue is approximately 7% from 2018 to 2024, with projected revenue of about 424.6 billion yuan in 2024 [2] - The growth drivers for pharmaceutical distribution include increased industry concentration, optimization of product structure towards high-demand and high-value products, and the advancement of innovative services [2] Group 3: Dividend Policy and Valuation - The company's dividend payout ratio has steadily increased from 28.1% in 2021 to 30.98% in 2024, with an average annual increase of 0.96 percentage points [3] - The average dividend yield over the past five years has been 4.45%, although it is expected to decrease to 3.47% in 2024 due to a decline in profits [3] - The current price-to-book (PB) ratio is approximately 0.71, which is below the five-year average of 0.81 [3] Group 4: Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 577.19 billion yuan, 597.83 billion yuan, and 619.32 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of -1%, 4%, and 4% respectively [4] - The expected net profits attributable to shareholders for the same period are 8.08 billion yuan, 8.75 billion yuan, and 9.52 billion yuan, reflecting growth rates of 15%, 8%, and 9% respectively [4] - Corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for the years 2025 to 2027 are projected to be 7.27, 6.71, and 6.17 [4]