Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-12-09 09:41Core Viewpoint - Cinda Securities reports that China National Pharmaceutical Group (National Pharmaceutical Holdings) is nearing the end of its inefficient business adjustments, with profit improvements expected by Q3 2025. The company is benefiting from increased industry concentration and the development of innovative businesses, leading to a gradual increase in dividend payout ratios and a current valuation below historical averages. The initial coverage gives the company a "Buy" investment rating [1]. Group 1: Profit Improvement and Business Adjustments - The adjustment of inefficient businesses is close to completion, with significant profit improvements observed. In Q3 2025, the sales expense ratio and management expense ratio decreased, resulting in a net profit margin increase of 0.2 percentage points, with a year-on-year growth rate of 17% in net profit attributable to shareholders [2]. - The year 2025 marks the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan and the base year for the 15th Five-Year Plan, focusing on quality improvement and business structure optimization. The company is expected to perform well in 2026, with profits likely to exceed expectations [2]. - The company has steadily increased its dividend payout ratio over the past four years, from 28.1% in 2021 to 30.98% in 2024, with an average annual increase of 0.96 percentage points. The average dividend yield over the past five years is 4.45%, and the current price-to-book (PB) ratio is approximately 0.71, below the five-year average of 0.81 [2][4]. Group 2: Industry Concentration and Growth Drivers - The concentration of the distribution industry has increased, with the market share of the top four companies rising from 38.38% in 2019 to 42.69% in 2023, with National Pharmaceutical Holdings holding a 20.36% market share in 2023. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of the company's pharmaceutical distribution revenue is approximately 7% from 2018 to 2024, with projected revenue of about 424.6 billion yuan in 2024 [3]. - Growth drivers for pharmaceutical distribution include increased industry concentration, optimization of product structure towards high-demand and high-value products, and the promotion of innovative service development. The CAGR for medical device distribution revenue is approximately 15.69%, with projected revenue of about 117.5 billion yuan in 2024 [3]. - In the retail sector, the company is advancing its "integrated wholesale and retail" strategy, with a CAGR of approximately 16% in retail revenue from 2018 to 2024. The revenue growth for the National Pharmacy is projected at 12.52%, while specialized pharmacies are expected to grow at a CAGR of about 23.64% [3]. Group 3: Future Planning and Governance Changes - The governance structure of the National Pharmaceutical Group underwent changes in 2024, with new leadership appointed. The company aims to achieve a strategic goal of becoming a top 100 company with a trillion yuan in revenue by the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan, and the planning for the 15th Five-Year Plan is set to begin in 2025 [4]. - The company’s dividend payout ratio has shown a steady increase, with a slight decline in the dividend yield to 3.47% in 2024 due to a decrease in profits. The current PB ratio is approximately 0.71, which is below the five-year average of 0.81 [4]. Group 4: Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 577.19 billion yuan, 597.83 billion yuan, and 619.32 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of -1%, 4%, and 4%, respectively. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 8.08 billion yuan, 8.75 billion yuan, and 9.52 billion yuan, with growth rates of 15%, 8%, and 9% [5].