换帅即降息？安联首席泼冷水：FOMC已四分五裂，新官上任难掌权

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that while the market anticipates a quick interest rate cut following the nomination of a new Federal Reserve Chair, the actual impact may be less significant than expected. The new Chair's real challenge lies in implementing deep reforms to restore the Fed's long-term credibility [1][2]. Group 1: Market Expectations and Challenges - The market's optimistic expectation of an immediate rate cut is based on fragile assumptions, as the potential policies of the new Chair have likely already been priced in by investors [2]. - The new Chair will require time to establish authority within the large bureaucratic structure of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which is currently divided and lacks a unified strategic vision [2][3]. - Existing FOMC members are highly sensitive to any accusations of yielding to political pressure, which may lead to resistance against a new Chair's attempts to change the current policy direction [2][3]. Group 2: Decision-Making and Trust Issues - The incoming Chair will inherit a committee that heavily relies on "backward-looking" data, making it difficult to accurately diagnose complex issues like labor market weaknesses [3]. - The Fed has faced multiple missteps in analysis, forecasting, and communication, which have eroded its credibility. A recent Gallup poll indicated that only 9% of Americans view the Fed's performance as "excellent," while 27% consider it "poor" [3]. Group 3: Structural Reforms Needed - The new Chair's historical mission should extend beyond merely cutting rates to implementing reforms aimed at enhancing the Fed's performance and safeguarding its independence [4]. - Proposed reforms include adjusting inflation target-setting methods, modifying the "dot plot" for interest rate expectations, and improving communication practices [4][5]. - The Fed's decision-making logic needs to shift from a focus on demand management to a greater emphasis on supply-side developments, especially in light of significant global economic changes [5].