黄金明年如何演绎？小摩高喊5300高价，世界黄金协会给出“三种剧本”

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices surged over 60% in 2025, driven by geopolitical risks, interest rate cuts, and central bank demand, with expectations for further increases in 2026 as gold maintains its status as a safe-haven asset [1] Group 1: Market Performance and Drivers - Gold has outperformed major asset classes year-to-date and is on track for its best annual performance since 1979, despite existing risks [1] - Multiple factors, including ongoing central bank purchases, geopolitical tensions, high trade uncertainty, low interest rates, and a weakening dollar, have collectively boosted demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [1] - Geopolitical tensions contributed approximately 12 percentage points to gold's performance year-to-date, while a weak dollar and lower interest rates contributed 10 percentage points each, with momentum and investor positioning adding 9 percentage points, and economic expansion contributing another 10 percentage points [1] Group 2: Future Price Predictions - The World Gold Council anticipates that many of the forces driving gold's remarkable rebound in 2025 will continue to play a role in 2026, although the starting point has fundamentally changed [2] - In its baseline scenario, the World Gold Council expects gold prices to trade within a narrow range, potentially limited to a decline of 5% to an increase of 5% [3] - Alternative scenarios suggest that in a mild economic downturn, gold prices could rise by 5% to 15%, while in a deeper economic recession, prices could rebound by 15% to 30% [3] - Conversely, if policies under the Trump administration successfully reignite growth, inflation could push yields and the dollar higher, potentially leading to a decline in gold prices by 5% to 20% [3] Group 3: Institutional Predictions - JPMorgan Private Bank predicts gold prices could reach between $5,200 and $5,300 per ounce, citing strong and sustained demand as a key driver [4] - Goldman Sachs forecasts gold prices to be around $4,900 per ounce by the end of next year, supported by continued central bank purchases [4] - Deutsche Bank provides a broad range of $3,950 to $4,950, with a baseline scenario close to $4,450, while Morgan Stanley anticipates prices near $4,500, though it warns of potential volatility [4] Group 4: Underlying Factors and Risks - Optimism is supported by ongoing accumulation of gold by central banks, particularly in emerging markets, and the view that many institutional investors remain under-allocated to gold [5] - The potential for declining real yields, combined with global macro risks, continues to make gold an attractive hedging tool for investment portfolios [5] - Risks that may limit further price increases include stronger-than-expected U.S. recovery or inflation rebound, which could lead the Federal Reserve to delay or reverse rate cuts, thereby raising real yields and the dollar [5] - A slowdown in ETF inflows or central bank purchases could suppress demand, while increased recycling, especially in India, may raise supply and exert downward pressure on prices [5]