2026年全球央行大分化：欧元区与澳加或转向加息，美联储成少数降息派？

Group 1 - Global central bank policies are experiencing rare divergence, with investors betting on potential interest rate hikes in the Eurozone as early as next year, while the US is expected to continue lowering rates [1][4] - The swap market indicates that the likelihood of the European Central Bank raising rates by 2026 has surpassed the possibility of cuts, contrasting with the Federal Reserve's anticipated rate cuts [1][4] - The divergence in policies may exacerbate the decline of the US dollar, which has already fallen over 8% against a basket of currencies this year [1][7] Group 2 - Economic data supports the hawkish shift in Europe and commodity currency countries, while the Federal Reserve's dovish path appears set, with expectations of rate cuts in the upcoming meetings [7] - Analysts note that the narrowing interest rate gap between the US and other major economies could lead to a revaluation of the dollar, particularly if the Fed maintains a dovish stance [7] - Strong economic data in regions like the Eurozone reduces the incentive for non-US central banks to cut rates further, potentially leading to a challenging year for the dollar if the Fed continues its rate cuts alone [7] Group 3 - In Canada, strong employment data has led traders to price in a slight possibility of a rate hike by the Bank of Canada early next year [9] - In Australia, robust household spending data has made the possibility of a rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia in February more plausible, though still considered low [9] - The Bank of Japan is also expected to raise rates at least twice by 2026, while the Bank of England is anticipated to lower rates but only slightly in the near term [9]