布米普特拉北京投资基金管理有限公司：美联储降息在即，市场却开始担忧明年“无息可降”

Group 1 - The market widely anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the upcoming meeting, but the focus has shifted to the long-term policy intentions revealed in the updated dot plot and Powell's statements during the press conference [4][6] - Recent market sentiment has changed, with traders now predicting only two additional rate cuts of 25 basis points each by the end of 2026, a more conservative outlook compared to previous expectations of over three cuts [4][6] - The uncertainty in monetary policy stems from increasing internal disagreements within the Federal Reserve and an unclear economic outlook, with a potential rise in the number of dissenting voices against rate cuts in the upcoming meeting [6][8] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's dual mandate requires careful consideration of data, as the labor market shows signs of weakness while inflation remains sticky above the 2% target [6] - Analysts predict that the Federal Reserve may announce a plan to expand its balance sheet starting in January 2026, primarily through purchasing short-term Treasury securities to increase bank reserves, which aims to stabilize short-term interest rate fluctuations [6][8] - The potential changes in Federal Reserve leadership could significantly influence future monetary policy and asset management, leading to a cautious approach in rate policy until new appointments are clarified in early 2026 [8]