2026关键词:稳中求进，首提斗争，不确定性

Group 1 - The market experienced a decline, particularly in the Hong Kong stock market, which fell below the 25,000-point mark, indicating liquidity issues as the year-end approaches [1] - The focus for December is on the upcoming economic work conference, with key messages indicating continued active fiscal policies to stimulate domestic consumption, extending beyond durable goods to general consumer goods and services [1] - The emphasis for 2026 is on stability, with the phrase "seeking progress while maintaining stability," highlighting anticipated economic challenges and a focus on steady growth [1] Group 2 - The term "economic and trade struggle" has emerged, indicating ongoing uncertainties in foreign trade relations, despite recent improvements in foreign trade data due to favorable outcomes in the US-China tariff negotiations [2] - The policy reiterates the importance of domestic demand, particularly in the service consumption sector, which is expected to benefit various industries, including retail, general goods manufacturing, and entertainment [4] - The upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate cut is anticipated to positively impact commodity prices, particularly for gold, silver, copper, and energy metals, while oil prices remain weak due to global energy transition [4] Group 3 - The ongoing tension between "big shorts" and AI companies like OpenAI is highlighted, with concerns about the sustainability of AI companies' revenue in relation to their operational costs [6] - The current market environment, characterized by a loose monetary policy, has historically supported technology companies, reducing the likelihood of financial distress for these firms [6] - The potential for a decline in computing costs due to advancements in semiconductor technology is noted, suggesting a long-term positive outlook for AI development despite current challenges [6]