冲破天际的铜牛市，能否持续？丨黄金眼

Core Viewpoint - The copper market is experiencing a significant transformation, driven by supply shortages and increasing demand from various sectors, indicating a potential long-term bull market for copper [1][12]. Supply Side Analysis - The supply of copper is facing unprecedented challenges, with several major mines experiencing disruptions due to geological events and natural disasters, leading to substantial production cuts [3][4]. - Key incidents include a 150,000-ton reduction in output from the Kamoa-Kakula mine due to geological tremors, an 18% production impact from the El Teniente mine in Chile, and a 227,000-ton reduction in output guidance from the Grasberg mine in Indonesia [3][4]. - The overall copper mining supply chain is fragile, with production capacity utilization declining from 85.2% in 2018 to an expected 81.1% in 2024, exacerbated by adverse weather, strikes, and technical failures [8][9]. Demand Side Analysis - Demand for copper is being driven by two main factors: the stable traditional demand from electrical grids and the rapidly growing demand from new technologies such as electric vehicles and AI data centers [4][6]. - From January to September 2025, China's investment in electrical grid construction reached 437.8 billion yuan, a 9.9% year-on-year increase, indicating robust demand from this sector [5]. - The production of electric vehicles is projected to grow by 33.1% year-on-year in 2025, contributing significantly to copper demand, alongside a forecasted increase of 1.1 million tons in global copper demand driven by electrical grids, electric vehicles, and data centers [6][10]. Long-term Outlook - The long-term narrative for copper is one of scarcity, with declining ore grades and a slowdown in new discoveries leading to a projected global copper supply growth of only 1.77% by 2024 [8][9]. - Despite potential recovery in production from existing mines in 2026-2027, the overall supply situation remains tight, with forecasts suggesting that even under optimistic conditions, the copper market will maintain a tight balance, leading to price increases [10][11]. - The macroeconomic environment in 2026 may create favorable conditions for a commodity bull market, as both the U.S. and China are expected to adopt expansionary fiscal policies [11].