供应链承压不改盈利势头 全球航空业利润明年有望创新高

Group 1 - The International Air Transport Association (IATA) forecasts a net profit of $41 billion for global airlines in the coming year, with passenger numbers expected to reach 5.2 billion, although this could be higher if supply chain issues are resolved [1] - The profit outlook represents a 4% increase from this year's projected profit of $39.5 billion, driven by stable economic growth, lower inflation, a weaker dollar, and declining fuel costs [1] - Europe is expected to achieve the strongest financial performance by 2025, with low-cost carriers expanding at double-digit rates and outperforming full-service airlines in terms of profit margins [1] Group 2 - The Asia-Pacific region is projected to see the largest increase in demand and capacity next year, fueled by a growing middle class and increasing travel activities [1] - The IATA's chief economist noted that the Middle East has the highest net profit margins, supported by strong demand for long-haul flights, infrastructure investments, and the expansion of hub airlines [1] - African airlines continue to struggle with profitability due to fragmented policies and high fuel costs [2] Group 3 - IATA has revised its profit target for the airline industry in 2025 down from $36.6 billion to $36 billion, citing trade tensions and weakened consumer confidence affecting airline revenues [2] - The industry is expected to maintain a profit margin of 3.9% next year, consistent with the forecast for 2025, with total industry revenue projected to reach $1.053 trillion [2] - Citigroup highlights a tactical bullish environment for U.S. airlines in 2026 due to poor performance and capacity cuts in 2025, particularly benefiting major carriers defined as "super airlines" [3]