邢自强中国经济与资本市场展望：三重变革筑牢增长根基 科技消费双线破局

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that despite short-term macro challenges, China's complete AI industrial chain advantage positions it as a necessary choice for global capital diversification, with a focus on technology and consumption in the coming years [1][4][10] - The three key transformations since September 24, 2024, are policy changes, corporate evolution, and shifts in capital flow, which have contributed to a new atmosphere in China's capital markets [4][5][8] - The policy shift initiated on September 24, 2024, aims to reshape market confidence by addressing deflationary cycles and balancing development with safety, which is crucial for stabilizing consumer expectations and employment [5][10] Group 2 - The corporate sector has shown resilience and innovation despite challenges from real estate adjustments and geopolitical tensions, with advancements in AI, smart driving, and biopharmaceuticals indicating a revival of competitive vitality [7][8][10] - There has been a fundamental shift in capital flow, with a notable return of institutional investors to Chinese asset markets since late 2024, as global investors seek diversification beyond USD assets [8][9] - The anticipated policy framework for 2026 emphasizes gradual efforts to combat deflation and aims for nominal GDP recovery, with infrastructure investment remaining a key focus in the short term [11][12][13] Group 3 - The real estate market's stabilization is critical for breaking the deflation cycle, with policies like mortgage interest subsidies being proposed to support homebuyers and restore market confidence [17][19] - Fiscal and tax reforms are necessary to enhance consumer demand, with the "15th Five-Year Plan" suggesting a shift towards a unified national market and increased investment in social welfare [20][21][22] - The proposed reforms aim to balance the focus on production with consumer needs, potentially increasing the consumer spending share of GDP from around 40% to approximately 45% by 2030, thereby expanding the domestic market [22][23][24]