布米普特拉北京投资基金管理有限公司：韩国的贸易出口出现分化

Core Viewpoint - South Korea's export economy is projected to reach a historic high of over $700 billion in 2025, primarily driven by a "super cycle" in the semiconductor industry, while overall export performance reveals concerning weaknesses in other sectors [1][4]. Group 1: Export Performance - In the first eleven months of this year, South Korea's total exports reached $640.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, surpassing the total for 2022 and setting a record for the same period [4]. - The semiconductor industry is the main driver of this growth, benefiting from strong demand fueled by global AI investment expansion [4]. - In November alone, semiconductor exports accounted for 28.3% of South Korea's total exports, marking a new high for the year, compared to around 10% in the first decade of this century [4]. Group 2: Structural Weakness - Excluding semiconductors, South Korea's export value from January to November was $787.6 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 1.5%, highlighting the vulnerability of the export structure [6]. - Several key industries are experiencing negative growth, including petrochemical products (-11.7%), petroleum products (-11.1%), steel (-8.8%), and machinery (-8.9%) [6]. - Exports of displays, home appliances, and secondary batteries also saw declines exceeding 9% [6]. Group 3: Economic Concerns - The heavy reliance on a single industry for growth raises significant concerns among economic experts regarding the health of South Korea's export structure [9]. - The semiconductor sector is characterized by high volatility, influenced by global technology cycles, geopolitical risks, and supply chain changes, posing a risk to the overall economy if demand cools [9]. - Challenges for South Korea's export outlook include global economic slowdown, ongoing trade uncertainties, and tariff policies from major trading partners, necessitating a long-term strategy to diversify and balance the export structure [9].