管涛：三大意外或令2026年美元汇率走势超预期

Core Viewpoint - The unexpected decline of the US dollar index amidst global tariff storms is a significant development in the international foreign exchange market for 2025 [2] Group 1: Dollar Index Trends - The dollar index reached a year-low of 96.64 on September 16, 2025, marking a maximum decline of 10.9% for the year, before rebounding to around 99.44 by the end of November, resulting in an annual decline of 8.34% [2] - Despite a recent rebound, market institutions remain bearish on the dollar, citing factors such as interest rate expectations, geopolitical risks, and changes in the international monetary system [3] Group 2: Impact of Tariff Policies - Trump's return to the White House has led to policies that have weakened the credibility of the dollar, including the imposition of "reciprocal tariffs" aimed at reducing the US trade deficit, which undermines the capital flow basis of dollar credibility [4] - The "reciprocal tariffs" not only target competitors but also traditional allies, damaging political relationships and further eroding the dollar's credibility [4] - The expansion of fiscal deficits under Trump's administration threatens the dollar's safe-haven status, as the credibility of US Treasury securities relies heavily on fiscal discipline and debt repayment capacity [5] Group 3: Global Monetary System Dynamics - The current international monetary system is experiencing challenges, with the dollar's dominance facing unprecedented threats due to the weakening of the Federal Reserve's independence and the emergence of alternative cross-border payment systems [5] - Despite the decline in dollar reserves, there are no immediate alternatives in the market, suggesting that the dollar may not have much further to fall [6] - The diversification of international reserve assets has primarily benefited gold, which saw a 6.24 percentage point increase in reserve share, while the dollar's share declined by 9.77 percentage points from early 2022 to mid-2025 [6] Group 4: Future Outlook - The potential for a multi-polar international monetary system may limit the impact on the dollar's exchange rate, as major commodity transactions are still predominantly priced in dollars [7] - The correlation between the dollar index and gold prices has shifted, with gold prices rising significantly, indicating a complex relationship that may provide support for the dollar [8] - Concerns about the Federal Reserve becoming a political tool under Trump's influence could lead to unexpected dollar index stabilization or strengthening in 2026 [9][12] Group 5: Trade Dynamics and Global Economic Relations - The global trade landscape is dynamic, with potential shifts in the main actors of trade disputes, which could lead to a re-evaluation of the dollar's role as a safe-haven asset [14] - The tariffs imposed by Trump are seen as a source of increased unilateralism and protectionism, which could disrupt global supply chains and hinder international economic circulation [13] - The potential for trade agreements to include restrictive clauses may provoke new trade disputes among nations, further complicating the global economic environment [14]