美国国债收益率升至数月高位，市场质疑美联储降息空间

Group 1 - Recent rise in U.S. Treasury yields has led investors to question the Federal Reserve's room for rate cuts next year [1] - The 10-year Treasury yield has reached its highest level in over two months, while most global government bond markets have declined [1] - The Treasury is set to issue $58 billion in 3-year notes, followed by $39 billion in 10-year notes and $22 billion in 30-year notes, adjusting the auction schedule to align with the Fed's two-day policy meeting [1] Group 2 - Despite a 90% probability priced in for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed this week, long-term bond yields continue to rise, a phenomenon referred to as the "Greenspan rate puzzle" [1] - Since the Fed began its rate-cutting cycle in September of last year, the 10-year Treasury yield has increased by nearly 50 basis points [1] - The September PCE price index rose 2.8% year-over-year and 0.3% month-over-month, with core PCE also at 2.8%, slightly below expectations, indicating persistent inflation above the Fed's 2% target [1] Group 3 - The stagnation in consumer spending suggests that the U.S. economy was already slowing before the government shutdown [2] - Real disposable income for U.S. consumers showed little growth for two consecutive months, with the largest decline in goods spending since May [2] - Upcoming employment, spending, and price data, delayed due to the government shutdown, are expected to show rising unemployment and weak consumer spending [2] Group 4 - Market participants are closely monitoring the Fed's "dot plot" to interpret officials' policy outlook for 2026 amid persistent inflation [2] - The continuous rise in Treasury yields reflects market concerns regarding the Fed's future policy space, leading investors to question whether the Fed's easing policies are nearing an end [2]