Nvidia can sell the more advanced H200 AI chip to China — but will Beijing want them?

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia has received U.S. government approval to sell its advanced H200 AI chips to China, but uncertainty remains regarding China's willingness to purchase these chips and the potential limitations imposed by Beijing [1][2][3]. Group 1: Approval and Sales - Nvidia can now ship its H200 chip to "approved customers" in China, with the U.S. government taking a 25% cut from these sales [2]. - Earlier this year, Nvidia was effectively banned from selling any semiconductors to China, but it has sought to resume sales of the H20 chip, which is less advanced and designed to comply with export restrictions [2][3]. Group 2: China's Response and Market Dynamics - Reports indicate that China may limit access to the H200 chip, and Nvidia is not counting on significant sales in China in its forecasts [3][4]. - China's strategic push for self-sufficiency in technology and semiconductor development may lead to resistance against purchasing American products like the H200 [4][8]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Chinese tech companies, including Huawei, Alibaba, and Baidu, are developing competitive AI products and may not rely on Nvidia chips, as they have stockpiled Nvidia chips prior to the ban [5][6]. - The performance gap between Nvidia's chips and domestic alternatives in China remains significant, making the H200 an attractive option despite the long-term strategy of self-reliance [11]. Group 4: Future Outlook - While there may be short-term demand for the H200 due to supply shortages in China, the long-term trajectory for China's tech industry will continue to focus on self-sufficiency [10][12]. - Industry experts suggest that the window for Nvidia to capitalize on H200 sales in China may be limited, as the country aims to develop its own capabilities in the semiconductor space [12][13].