与AI抢电力、价格创新高，铝产业“反内卷”的突围之路

Core Viewpoint - The aluminum industry is experiencing a remarkable turnaround by the end of 2025, with prices surpassing 22,000 yuan/ton, marking a three-year high, driven by structural changes in supply and demand, energy dynamics, and environmental reforms [1][3]. Price Surge: The "Reversal Curve" of Aluminum Market in 2025 - Aluminum prices began at around 19,700 yuan/ton in early 2025, dipped to 19,000 yuan/ton in April, and surged to over 22,000 yuan/ton by December, indicating a significant upward trend [3]. - The price increase is attributed to supply-demand imbalances, with stable domestic production capacity and seasonal fluctuations in hydropower affecting supply, while demand from sectors like electric vehicles and renewable energy is rising [3][4]. Energy Cost Restructuring - The explosive growth in electricity demand from AI data centers is creating competition for power resources, leading to structural increases in industrial electricity prices, which directly impact aluminum production costs [4]. - Electricity accounts for over one-third of the production cost of electrolytic aluminum, making it sensitive to price fluctuations [4]. Carbon Market and Industry Transformation - The inclusion of the aluminum smelting industry in the national carbon trading market in March 2025 introduces new costs for carbon emissions, pushing companies to adopt energy-saving technologies and increasing the share of recycled aluminum production [6][7]. - The proportion of recycled aluminum is expected to exceed 25% in 2025, reflecting a significant shift towards green transformation in the industry [6][9]. Competitive Landscape and Industry Evolution - The focus of competition is shifting from production capacity to energy consumption and carbon emissions, leading to a consolidation of the industry where companies with clean energy and advanced technology gain competitive advantages [7][8]. - Leading aluminum companies are diversifying into high-value products such as aerospace materials and lightweight automotive components, enhancing their resilience against market fluctuations [7][8]. Future Outlook: The New Metal King in 2026 - The aluminum industry is expected to continue its transformation in 2026, with a focus on clean energy integration and product structure upgrades, particularly in high-performance aluminum alloys for strategic sectors [8][9]. - The share of recycled aluminum is projected to surpass 30%, with urban mining and recycling systems becoming new industry hotspots [9][10]. - Chinese aluminum companies are likely to accelerate international expansion, particularly in regions rich in hydropower, while enhancing risk management through financial instruments [10]. Conclusion - The aluminum industry has demonstrated its vitality through significant price performance and profound changes, reflecting a shift from factor-driven to innovation-driven growth, emphasizing energy efficiency and high-end production in the new industrial landscape [11].