4000点上的困惑：为何指数涨了钱没赚到？

Group 1 - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting is significant due to a record number of dissenting votes, indicating serious internal disagreements regarding the assessment of neutral interest rates [4] - The Shanghai Composite Index has increased by 19.6% since April 7, but only 40% of stocks have outperformed the index, highlighting a disconnect between index performance and individual stock returns [4] - The phenomenon of "making money on the index but not in reality" reflects a cognitive gap between ordinary investors and institutional investors [4][5] Group 2 - Market trends are influenced by various factors such as policies, earnings, and capital flows, but the true determinant of trends is the trading intentions of large institutional funds [6] - Ordinary investors often struggle to grasp the stock market because they are not privy to the true intentions behind surface-level information [6] - The analysis of trading behavior through quantitative data can reveal the underlying market dynamics, distinguishing between institutional and retail investor actions [10][13] Group 3 - The analysis of two stocks demonstrates typical market behavior where rapid increases are followed by quick adjustments, causing confusion among ordinary investors [9] - Quantitative data analysis can identify whether institutional funds are actively participating in market movements, which is crucial for understanding market trends [13][15] - The Federal Reserve's internal divisions and the A-share market's current state both emphasize the importance of recognizing the hidden truths behind market appearances [15]