2026年全球央行大分化：欧元区或转向加息，美联储成少数降息派？

Core Viewpoint - Global central bank policies are experiencing rare divergence, with investors betting on potential interest rate hikes in the Eurozone as early as next year, while the U.S. continues to lower rates, which may further weaken the already soft dollar [1][4]. Group 1: Central Bank Policy Divergence - The swap market pricing indicates that the likelihood of the European Central Bank raising rates by 2026 has surpassed that of a rate cut [1]. - The Federal Reserve is widely expected to lower rates at its upcoming meeting and is anticipated to cut rates at least two more times next year [1][7]. - Other major economies, such as Australia and Canada, are also expected to raise rates next year, while the Bank of England is projected to reach a low point by summer [1]. Group 2: Economic Data Supporting Policy Divergence - Strong economic data from Europe and commodity currency countries contrasts sharply with the dovish path of the Federal Reserve [7]. - In Canada, robust employment data for November has led traders to price in a slight possibility of a rate hike by the Bank of Canada early next year [7]. - In Australia, strong household spending data has made the possibility of a rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia in February more plausible, albeit still small [7]. - Japan's central bank is also expected to raise rates at least twice by 2026, following hints from its governor [7]. - The Bank of England is expected to lower rates next week but is only fully pricing in one more 25 basis point cut thereafter [7]. Group 3: Dollar Valuation Challenges - Interest rate differentials are key drivers of exchange rate movements, with lower rates typically reducing the attractiveness of holding that currency [8]. - The gap in interest rates between the Eurozone and other major economies compared to the U.S. is narrowing, which could lead to a moderate weakening of the dollar by 2026 if the Fed maintains a dovish stance [8]. - The dollar has already declined over 8% against a basket of currencies this year, and a continued dovish policy by the Fed could exacerbate this trend [8].