Hua Er Jie Jian Wen·2025-12-09 14:02Core Viewpoint - Apple has emerged as an unexpected winner in the market amid Wall Street's cautious investment in artificial intelligence (AI), with its stock price surging over 35% in the second half of the year, contrasting sharply with other tech giants that have faced declines [1][3]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Apple's stock price has dramatically reversed its earlier decline of 18% in the first half of the year, becoming a unique defensive choice for investors [3]. - The company's market capitalization has reached $4.1 trillion, surpassing Microsoft to become the second-largest component in the S&P 500 index, only behind Nvidia [1]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - Apple's cautious approach to AI investments is being reinterpreted as a strategic advantage, allowing it to benefit flexibly when AI technology matures [1][3]. - Glenview Trust Company's CIO Bill Stone describes Apple as a "anti-AI concept stock," emphasizing its avoidance of the current AI arms race and excessive capital expenditures [3]. Group 3: Valuation Concerns - The stock's strong performance has pushed its valuation to historical highs, with a forward P/E ratio of approximately 33, which is significantly above its long-term average of less than 19 [3][4]. - MoffettNathanson's Craig Moffett questions whether investors are paying too high a premium for Apple's defensive attributes, indicating potential concerns about future growth rates [4]. Group 4: Technical Analysis and Long-term Outlook - Technical analysis suggests that Apple's stock price has significantly diverged from its 200-day moving average, indicating potential short-term pullback pressure, especially entering January [6]. - Despite valuation concerns, the long-term trend for Apple remains upward, with the potential for increased hardware demand and growth in its high-margin services business as AI technology matures [6][7].