最新1520元，飞天茅台批价两年跌了43%，经销商躺赢神话破灭，当潮水退去谁在裸泳？

Core Viewpoint - The wholesale price of Feitian Moutai has significantly decreased, reaching 1520 RMB per bottle, approaching the official guidance price of 1499 RMB, raising speculation about whether the manufacturer is controlling supply to maintain prices [2][18]. Price Trends - The wholesale price of Feitian Moutai was as high as 2678 RMB per bottle in December 2021, but has dropped approximately 43% to around 1520 RMB per bottle by December 9, 2023 [2][5]. - The average retail price for consumers on e-commerce platforms ranges from 1600 RMB to 1850 RMB per bottle [2]. Dealer Insights - Dealers have completed their sales targets for 2025, which is the primary reason for the current halt in supply from the manufacturer, rather than a strategy to control prices [2][3]. - The perception of a "lying win" era for dealers has ended, as they now face a market where the price difference between wholesale and retail has diminished [2][11]. Cost Structure - The factory price of Feitian Moutai was raised to 1169 RMB per bottle as of November 1, 2023, a 20% increase from the previous price of 969 RMB [6]. - The official guidance price of 1499 RMB per bottle serves as a significant benchmark for consumers [7]. - Dealers' comprehensive cost line, which includes the costs of other products they are required to sell, is approximately 1700 RMB per bottle, leading to losses when selling Feitian Moutai at around 1650 RMB [8][9]. Market Dynamics - The market is currently questioning whether the price of Feitian Moutai will fall below the official guidance price of 1499 RMB, with predictions suggesting it may stabilize around 1600 RMB before the Spring Festival [18]. - The ongoing price decline is testing the psychological limits of dealers, investors, and consumers [18]. Future Outlook - The industry is transitioning from a focus on selling liquor to providing a lifestyle experience, with dealers needing to adapt to this new role [13][22]. - Embracing e-commerce and integrating online and offline sales strategies are becoming essential for dealers to survive in the changing market [15][22]. - Despite current challenges, there is long-term optimism regarding the demand for Moutai, as the consumer base is expected to grow with lower prices [20][22].