最新1520元 飞天茅台批价两年跌了43% 经销商躺赢神话破灭 当潮水退去谁在裸泳？

Core Viewpoint - The wholesale price of Feitian Moutai has significantly dropped to 1520 yuan per bottle, nearing the official guidance price of 1499 yuan, raising speculation about whether the manufacturer is controlling supply to maintain prices. However, the actual reason for the supply halt is that distributors have fulfilled their sales targets for 2025, negating the need for further shipments [2][3][7]. Price Trends - The wholesale price of Feitian Moutai was around 2678 yuan per bottle in December 2021, but has since decreased by approximately 43% to about 1520 yuan per bottle by December 9, 2023 [2][4][7]. - The average retail price for consumers on e-commerce platforms ranges from 1600 yuan to 1850 yuan per bottle, indicating a price disparity between wholesale and retail [2]. Distributor Challenges - Distributors are facing a shift from a previously profitable model, where they could easily make profits, to a more challenging environment where they must adapt to declining prices and changing market dynamics [11][20]. - The concept of "comprehensive cost line" is crucial for distributors, as it includes not only the cost of Feitian Moutai but also the sales obligations for other products, many of which are currently sold at a loss [9][10]. Market Dynamics - The market is currently experiencing a "temperature drop," with distributors feeling pressure as prices continue to decline. The concern is whether prices will fall below the official guidance price of 1499 yuan [7][16]. - There is a belief among some distributors that if prices drop significantly, it may force manufacturers to adjust their sales strategies, potentially allowing for more flexible payment terms on other products [16]. Future Outlook - Despite short-term pessimism, there is long-term optimism regarding the demand for Moutai, as the fundamental consumer interest remains strong. The market may see an increase in buyers as prices decrease [18][20]. - The transition from being mere "Moutai transporters" to providing lifestyle experiences is seen as essential for distributors to remain competitive in the evolving market landscape [13][20].