JPMorgan Noted Kaspi.kz’s (KSPI) Softening 2026 Fintech Outlook, Lowered PT

Core Viewpoint - Kaspi.kz is identified as a promising tech stock, but JPMorgan has lowered its price target for the company, reflecting a cautious outlook for the fintech sector in 2026 due to economic factors [1]. Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, Kaspi.kz reported a total revenue increase of 20% year-over-year, reaching KZT797 billion, excluding Turkey [2]. - Total Payment Volume (TPV) grew by 18%, while transaction volume increased by 14% [2]. - The fintech segment's revenue rose by 24%, driven by a 16% increase in Total Financial Engagement (TFE) and strong performance in merchant lending [3]. - The fintech loan portfolio expanded significantly, growing by 30% year-over-year [3]. - Advertising revenue surged by 56%, supported by new services enabling merchants to advertise on platforms like Facebook and Instagram [3]. Company Overview - Kaspi.kz operates in three segments: Payments, Marketplace, and Fintech, providing solutions for consumers and merchants in Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Ukraine [4].