Group 1: Company Performance - The performance of Kaspi.kz is stable, with no significant deceleration in recent results despite the impact of higher sales and bank taxes expected in Q1 [2][3] - Smartphone sales are showing improvement, which is anticipated to accelerate smartphone adoption and drive marketplace growth, particularly in 2026 [2] - Hepsi is projected to reach EBITDA breakeven levels by 2026, indicating positive operational progress [2] Group 2: Economic Context - The Kazakh economy is developing positively, with typical taxes and structural changes not significantly hindering Kaspi's growth [3] - The company is expected to manage the pressure from taxes in Q1 without substantial negative impact on overall performance [3] - Kaspi remains undervalued at just over 6x trailing PE, considering its growth potential [3]

Business Operations and Growth - As of December 31, 2025, the company had approximately 764,000 Active Merchants on its platforms[54] - The company launched its e-Grocery business in partnership with Magnum in 2021, and has developed Government Services in collaboration with the Kazakhstan government[46] - The company’s revenue from its Marketplace is significantly growing, relying on merchants selling their products on its platforms[54] - The company is focused on increasing user engagement in its Super Apps, which integrate all products and services offered, to drive growth in online and mobile consumption[85] - The company has invested significantly in infrastructure and technology to enhance its platform and introduce new products and services[43] - The company’s acquisition of a controlling stake in Hepsiburada is a strategic move to expand its addressable market in Türkiye[47] - The company has expanded its geographical reach, acquiring a controlling stake in Hepsiburada in Türkiye, which was settled in U.S. dollars, exposing it to exchange rate fluctuations[104] Financial Performance and Risks - The Fintech segment generated 33% of net income for the year ended December 31, 2025, up from 31% in 2024[74] - The company is exposed to liquidity risk, with 85% of customer accounts held in term deposits as of December 31, 2025, which can be withdrawn prior to maturity[66] - The company faces interest rate risk, with higher than normal interest rates contributing to declining profitability in the Fintech segment in 2025, 2024, and 2023[71] - The company relies on funding from retail customer deposits, which may be impacted by unexpected withdrawals, affecting its ability to meet funding requirements[67] - The company incurred losses of ₸690 million due to disruptions from protests in January 2022, impacting technology and product development expenses[173] Regulatory and Compliance Challenges - The evolving regulatory environment in Kazakhstan may lead to inconsistent interpretations and increased compliance costs, affecting profitability[143] - Legal uncertainty in Türkiye regarding e-commerce regulations may adversely affect the company's operations and customer perception[113] - The company has implemented anti-money laundering measures, but failures in compliance could result in significant fines and reputational harm[149] - The company may face increased costs and operational challenges due to compliance with local and international laws regarding AI, which could impact its ability to develop and implement AI solutions[88] - The company is subject to broader laws, regulations, and standards, including the Exchange Act and Sarbanes-Oxley Act[239] Market and Economic Conditions - The annual consumer price inflation in Kazakhstan was reported at 9.8%, 8.6%, and 12.3% for the years ended December 31, 2023, 2024, and 2025 respectively[57] - The Kazakhstan economy is subject to significant legal, economic, tax, and political risks, which could adversely affect the company's financial condition and results of operations[161] - The company is dependent on the economic conditions in Kazakhstan, which could be affected by geopolitical tensions and market downturns[163] - The company faces risks from inflationary pressures in Türkiye, with a forecasted inflation rate of 23.2% in 2026, potentially impacting growth and profitability[190] Technology and Cybersecurity - The development and implementation of AI and machine learning capabilities are critical for enhancing user experience and risk management, but face risks related to data quality and algorithm effectiveness[87] - The company has experienced system failures and interruptions, which could adversely affect the availability and functionality of its platforms, potentially leading to customer attrition[107] - The company processes a large amount of data, and any breach or failure of its systems could materially adversely affect its financial condition and results of operations[110] - The company has experienced cyberattacks in the past, and any future security breaches could have a material adverse effect on its business and financial condition[114][115] Shareholder and Corporate Governance - The principal shareholders, including Mr. Vyacheslav Kim and Mr. Mikheil Lomtadze, collectively own 66.5% of the outstanding share capital, significantly influencing corporate strategy and decisions[223] - The rights of shareholders are governed by Kazakhstan law, which may differ significantly from U.S. corporate governance practices, potentially limiting shareholder influence[225] - The company may be subject to adverse media coverage related to its principal shareholders, which could impact its reputation and financial condition[224] Taxation and Financial Regulations - Kazakhstan's new Tax Code increased the corporate income tax rate for second-tier banks from 20% to 25%[208] - A 10% tax on revenue from government securities was recently imposed by the Kazakhstani government, increasing tax expenses[208] - The Tax Code introduced a 50% reduction of existing tax exemptions for certain financial transactions of second-tier banks[208] - Tax legislation in Kazakhstan is subject to frequent changes, creating unpredictability and potential adverse tax implications[209] Capital Adequacy and Financial Stability - Kaspi Bank's total capital adequacy ratio was 12.7% as of December 31, 2025, exceeding the minimum required by the National Bank of Kazakhstan (NBK) of 12.0%[156] - Kaspi Bank's Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio was 12.7% as of December 31, 2025, also above the minimum requirement of 10.5%[156] - As of December 31, 2025, Kaspi Bank's total capital adequacy ratio calculated under Basel III was 19.6%, significantly higher than the minimum requirement of 8.0%[157] - The Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio under Basel III was 19.6% as of December 31, 2025, exceeding the minimum requirement of 6.5%[157]

Revenue Growth - Total revenue for 2023 reached KZT 1,913,490 million, with projections of KZT 2,532,156 million for 2024 and KZT 4,046,074 million for 2025, indicating a growth of 32.3% from 2023 to 2024 and 59.7% from 2024 to 2025[4]. - Net income for 2023 was KZT 848,770 million, expected to increase to KZT 1,056,834 million in 2024 and KZT 1,067,707 million in 2025, reflecting a growth of 24.5% year-over-year in 2024 and a marginal increase of 1.0% in 2025[4]. - The company reported net fee revenue of KZT 987,967 million in 2023, projected to rise to KZT 1,275,125 million in 2024 and KZT 1,598,351 million in 2025, representing a growth of 29.1% in 2024 and 25.4% in 2025[4]. - Interest revenue is expected to grow from KZT 833,516 million in 2023 to KZT 1,082,668 million in 2024 and KZT 1,579,346 million in 2025, marking an increase of 29.9% in 2024 and 46.0% in 2025[4]. - Retail revenue is anticipated to increase significantly from KZT 68,807 million in 2023 to KZT 850,127 million in 2025, marking a growth rate of 1,136.5%[140]. - Total fee and retail revenue is projected to grow from KZT 1,096,912 million in 2023 to KZT 2,513,568 million in 2025, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 61.5%[143]. Asset and Equity Growth - Total assets increased from KZT 8,377,101 million in 2024 to KZT 11,081,748 million in 2025, indicating a growth of 32.3%[8]. - Total equity as of 31 December 2025 was KZT 2,601,577 million, reflecting an increase from KZT 1,572,861 million in 2024[11]. - The company’s cash and cash equivalents increased from KZT 619,470 million in 2024 to KZT 903,143 million in 2025, reflecting a growth of 45.8%[8]. - The total cash and cash equivalents increased significantly from KZT 619,470 million in 2024 to KZT 903,143 million in 2025, representing a growth of 45.8%[171]. - The total net book value of property, equipment, and intangible assets reached KZT 714,361 million, up from KZT 269,289 million in 2024, reflecting a significant increase[185]. Expenses and Costs - The company plans to continue expanding its market presence and investing in technology and product development, with expenses in this area projected to rise from KZT 88,657 million in 2023 to KZT 208,580 million in 2025[4]. - Total costs and operating expenses are expected to escalate from KZT 891,486 million in 2023 to KZT 2,714,156 million in 2025, indicating a CAGR of approximately 78.5%[151]. - Interest expenses and fees are projected to increase from KZT 478,010 million in 2023 to KZT 908,698 million in 2025, reflecting a growth of 90.0%[157]. - Share-based compensation expenses are expected to decrease from KZT 20,859 million in 2023 to KZT 15,476 million in 2025, a reduction of approximately 26.0%[158]. Financial Performance and Ratios - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to grow from KZT 4,431 in 2023 to KZT 5,477 in 2024 and KZT 5,631 in 2025, indicating a year-over-year increase of 23.6% in 2024 and 2.8% in 2025[4]. - Net income attributable to shareholders increased from KZT 841,351 million in 2023 to KZT 1,073,177 million in 2025, reflecting a growth of 27.7%[170]. - The net income is expected to grow from KZT 848,770 million in 2023 to KZT 1,067,707 million in 2025, reflecting a growth of 25.8%[145]. Acquisitions and Market Expansion - The acquisition of a 65.41% share in "D-MARKET Electronic Services & Trading" (Hepsiburada) was completed for approximately USD 1,127 million, with an additional 10.55% acquired for USD 66 million[19]. - The company expanded its market presence by acquiring 39.758% of Kolesa JSC, allowing it to control approximately 50.76% of the voting rights in Kolesa Group[18]. - Non-current assets in Türkiye are projected to reach KZT 347,867 million by the end of 2025, indicating a significant investment in market expansion[149]. Financial Instruments and Risk Management - The Group measures financial assets and liabilities at fair value or amortized cost, depending on the business model and cash flow characteristics[78][82]. - The Group enters into various derivative financial instruments to manage exposure to interest rate and foreign exchange risks, classified as held for trading[83]. - Expected credit loss (ECL) is measured based on the probability-weighted present value of future cash shortfalls, considering factors like exposure at default and loss given default[84][85]. - Significant increases in credit risk are assessed on both individual and portfolio bases, with criteria monitored periodically[86][87]. Compliance and Accounting Policies - The company has a consolidated financial statement prepared in Kazakhstani tenge, with a focus on historical cost accounting and compliance with IFRS standards[25][31]. - The company applies IAS 29 for its Turkish operations, adjusting for inflation and translating financial results into Kazakhstani tenge[39]. - The Group conducts annual impairment tests on intangible assets with indefinite useful lives to ensure they continue to generate net cash inflows[54]. Provisions and Allowances - As of December 31, 2023, the total loss allowance for financial assets is KZT 249,644 million, with KZT 166,042 million in Stage 3 loans[161]. - The allowance for impairment losses on loans to customers increased from KZT 295,843 million in 2024 to KZT 371,764 million in 2025, a rise of 25.6%[182]. - The total effect on the consolidated statements of profit or loss for 2025 was KZT 161,651 million[163].

Core Viewpoint - Recent Q4 earnings have significantly influenced the perception of Kaspi.kz, indicating a strong growth opportunity for the company [1]. Company Analysis - Kaspi.kz is positioned for sustainable growth, with a focus on fundamental analysis and unit economics to assess long-term viability [1]. - The investment philosophy surrounding Kaspi.kz is centered on a GARP (Growth at a Reasonable Price) approach, seeking companies with growth potential that are undervalued [1]. Financial Integrity - Emphasis is placed on financial integrity, highlighting the importance of looking beyond superficial narratives in financial reporting [1]. - The research process involves building proprietary Excel models to analyze revenue streams and cost structures, providing a detailed understanding of the business mechanics [1].

Core Insights - Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz (NASDAQ:KSPI) reported a 19% growth in core revenue for the full year 2025, totaling KZT 3.1 trillion (~$6.2 billion), and a 10% increase in consolidated net income, reaching KZT 1.1 trillion (~$2.1 billion) [1][6] - The company's performance was at the lower end of management's guidance due to external challenges, including a 24% decline in smartphone sales, high interest rates, and regulatory tax changes [1] - The CEO emphasized that underlying net income, excluding one-off factors, grew by 18%, indicating the resilience of Kaspi.kz's core business model [1] Business Integration and Growth Strategy - Management is integrating Hepsiburada in Türkiye by utilizing the 'Kaspi Playbook' to focus on high-frequency engaged consumers, which grew by 29% in Q4 [2] - There is a significant monetization opportunity in Türkiye, aiming to close the gap between the 25 annual purchases per consumer in Kazakhstan and the current average of ~7 in Türkiye [2] - For 2026, guidance for the Turkish business is set at EBITDA breakeven, allowing for aggressive reinvestment into logistics and personalization tools [2] Future Projections - For 2026, Kaspi.kz has issued consolidated guidance targeting approximately 20% growth in Gross Merchandise Value, Total Payment Volume, and Total Fintech Volume [3] - The company is scaling its 'Kaspi Alaqan' palm-pay technology, which has achieved 10% transaction penetration in Almaty within 90 days of launch [3] Company Overview - Kaspi.kz, along with its subsidiaries, provides payments, marketplace, and fintech solutions for consumers and merchants in Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Ukraine [4] - The company operates in three segments: Payments, Marketplace, and Fintech [4]

Core Insights - The company reported strong financial results for Q4 and full-year 2025, with total payment volume (TPV) growing 14% year over year in Q4 and 19% for the full year, aligning with prior guidance of around 20% [1] - Management highlighted the successful launch of "Kaspi Alaqan" (pay-by-palm), which has rapidly gained traction, accounting for nearly 10% of transactions in enabled stores [2][3] - The company is focusing on long-term growth while proposing a dividend of KZT 850 per ADS, subject to shareholder approval [5][17] Payments Segment - Total payment volume (TPV) grew 14% year over year in Q4 and 19% for the full year, with transaction volumes increasing by 12% in Q4 and 14% for the year [1] - Revenue growth was 7% in Q4 and 12% for the year, impacted by a shift towards lower take-rate products [1] - Net income grew 4% in Q4 and 13% for the full year, with Q4 results affected by costs related to the Alaqan launch [1] Marketplace Segment - Marketplace GMV grew 12% in Q4 and 19% for the full year, despite a 24% decline in smartphone GMV in Q4 [7] - Marketplace purchases increased 34% in Q4 and 35% for the full year, with e-commerce take rate reaching all-time highs of 13.1% in Q4 [8] - E-commerce GMV grew 9% in Q4 and 16% for the year, with advertising revenue increasing by 45% year over year in Q4 [9] Fintech Segment - Total financing volume (TFV) grew 4% in Q4 and 13% for the full year, driven by merchant and micro business financing [12] - Net income in the fintech segment grew 4% in Q4 and 9% for the year, with higher interest rates and taxes impacting results [12] - Loan portfolio growth was 27% in Q4 and 31% for the year, while deposits grew 16% in Q4 [12] Türkiye Operations - Hepsiburada orders grew 19% in Q4, with a focus on increasing purchase frequency and engaged consumers [13] - Hepsiburada GMV grew 13% in Q4 and 7% for the full year in real terms, supported by take rate improvement [14] - The company is not planning to enter quick commerce, focusing instead on e-grocery for larger household shopping [15] 2026 Guidance - The company will include Türkiye in its 2026 guidance, focusing on GMV, TPV, and TFV on a consolidated basis [15] - Management expects around 5% adjusted EBITDA growth, with a base of KZT 1.6 trillion for 2025 [15] - The proposed dividend level of KZT 850 per share is expected to be sustainable through 2026 [17]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company's net income grew by 18% excluding external factors, while consolidated net profit grew around 10% including those factors [3][21] - For Q4, net income growth reached 13%, indicating solid performance despite headwinds [3][21] - Revenue growth for the full year was 19%, with a 15% growth in Q4 [39][21] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Payments in Kazakhstan saw a TPV growth of 14% year-over-year in Q4 and 19% for the full year, driven by consistent transaction volume trends [21] - Marketplace GMV growth was 12% in Q4 and 19% for the full year, with e-commerce being the fastest-growing segment at 9% GMV growth in Q4 and 16% for the full year [22][25] - Fintech growth was 4% in Q4 and 13% for the full year, with merchant financing being a key growth driver [32][34] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The smartphone category negatively impacted GMV, with a 24% decline in Q4, but is expected to return to growth in 2026 [23][25] - E-grocery is the fastest-growing e-commerce business, with a GMV growth of 53% for the year [26] - The number of engaged consumers in Kazakhstan increased by 66%, indicating strong consumer loyalty [19] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on long-term growth and value creation, proposing a dividend of KZT 850 per ADS [2] - E-commerce and delivery services are prioritized for growth, with a focus on increasing consumer engagement and transaction frequency [11][12] - The strategy in Turkey mirrors that of Kazakhstan, emphasizing engaged consumers over total user count [16][19] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged external challenges such as high interest rates and tax changes but remains optimistic about future growth [3][20] - The company plans to manage the Turkey business around EBITDA breakeven while continuing to invest in consumer engagement [50][52] - There is an expectation for interest rates to potentially decrease in the medium term, which would benefit the business [43][70] Other Important Information - The company has launched innovative payment solutions like "pay by palm," achieving rapid adoption with nearly half a million customers in Almaty [8][9] - The brand is recognized as the number one consumer brand across various categories, significantly outpacing competitors [5][6] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you comment on the order trajectory and potential peak losses in Turkey? - Management indicated that they will manage the Turkey business around EBITDA breakeven and focus on consumer engagement through faster delivery and technology investments [50][51] Question: What is the competitive environment in Turkey? - Management emphasized focusing on high-quality products and services rather than on competition, aiming to increase engaged customers and order frequency [72][73] Question: Can you provide insights on the sustainable dividend payout going forward? - The company declared a dividend of KZT 850 per share, which is expected to be sustainable for the remainder of the year, with no plans to cut dividends [67][70]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company's net income grew by 18% excluding external factors, while consolidated net profit grew around 10% including those factors [3] - For Q4, net income growth reached 13%, indicating solid performance despite headwinds [3] - Revenue growth for the full year was 19%, with a 15% growth in Q4 [41] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Payments in Kazakhstan saw a TPV growth of 14% year-over-year in Q4 and 19% for the full year [21] - Marketplace GMV growth was 12% in Q4 and 19% for the full year, with e-Commerce being the fastest-growing segment at 9% GMV growth in Q4 and 16% for the full year [22][25] - Fintech growth was 4% in Q4 and 13% for the full year, driven by merchant and micro business financing [33] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The smartphone category negatively impacted GMV, with a decline of around 24% in Q4, but it is expected to return to growth in 2026 [23] - e-Grocery is the fastest-growing e-Commerce business, with GMV growth of 53% for the year [26] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on long-term growth and value creation while resuming dividends due to strong cash generation [2] - Emphasis on consumer engagement and the quality of products and services to drive repeat purchases and loyalty [6][19] - Plans to continue investing in technology and consumer engagement in Türkiye, aiming for EBITDA breakeven [20][54] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged the impact of external factors such as high interest rates and tax changes on performance [3][35] - The company is optimistic about future growth, particularly in e-Commerce and fintech, despite current challenges [20][36] Other Important Information - The proposed dividend is KZT 850 per ADS, subject to shareholder approval [2] - The company has a strong brand presence, with significant consumer engagement metrics [4][5] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you comment on the order trajectory and potential peak losses in Türkiye? - Management indicated that they will manage the Türkiye business around EBITDA breakeven while investing in consumer engagement and technology [50][52] Question: What is the nature of the $300 million investment from Rabobank? - The investment will support the launch of a wider range of financial products and is already factored into dividend considerations [54][55] Question: How does the company view the competitive environment in Türkiye? - The focus remains on product quality and consumer engagement rather than competition, with a commitment to improving services [66][71] Question: Can you clarify the sustainability of the dividend payout? - The company confirmed that the proposed dividend is sustainable for the remainder of the year, despite potential regulatory and tax impacts [67][69]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company's net income grew by 18% excluding external factors, while consolidated net profit grew around 10% including those factors [3][38] - For Q4 2025, net income growth reached 13%, indicating solid performance despite headwinds [3][38] - Revenue growth for the full year was 19%, with a 15% growth in Q4 [38] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Payments in Kazakhstan saw a TPV growth of 14% year-over-year in Q4 and 19% for the full year [20] - Marketplace GMV growth was 12% in Q4 and 19% for the full year, with e-commerce being the fastest-growing segment [22][24] - Fintech growth was 4% in Q4 and 13% for the full year, driven by merchant and micro business financing [31][33] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The smartphone category negatively impacted GMV, with a decline of around 24% in Q4, but it returned to growth in January 2026 [22] - E-commerce purchases grew by 70% in Q4 and 83% for the full year, indicating strong demand [24] - The number of engaged consumers in Turkey increased by 29%, reflecting a focus on consumer engagement [17] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to continue investing in long-term growth while resuming dividends, proposing a dividend of KZT 850 per ADS [2] - E-commerce is a key focus area, with plans to enhance delivery and advertising services to drive growth [10][11] - The strategy in Turkey mirrors that of Kazakhstan, focusing on engaged consumers rather than just total user count [14][80] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged challenges from high interest rates, tax changes, and smartphone supply issues but remains optimistic about future growth [3][38] - The company is focused on creating a valuable business through high-quality products and services, rather than merely expanding size [70][71] - There is an expectation for interest rates to potentially decrease in the medium term, which would benefit the business [42] Other Important Information - The company reported a strong brand presence, with significant consumer engagement metrics, including 77 monthly transactions per active consumer [4][5] - The launch of the "pay by palm" service has seen rapid adoption, with nearly half a million customers registered in Almaty [7][8] - The company plans to manage Hepsiburada towards EBITDA breakeven while continuing to invest in consumer engagement [19] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you clarify the investment related to Rabobank and the $300 million investment? - The investment will enhance consumer engagement and improve delivery offerings, with specific product launches to be announced as regulatory approvals are obtained [47][52] Question: How do you perceive the competitive environment in Turkey? - The company focuses on high-quality products and services rather than on competition, prioritizing consumer and merchant satisfaction [63][70] Question: What is the expected bottom line development considering regulatory changes? - The company anticipates higher taxes and reserve requirements to impact the bottom line, but expects to return to growth in the second half of the year [68][69]

4Q & FY 2025 Results 2 March, 2026 1 Disclaimer-Forward-Looking Statements, Key Financial and Operating Metrics and Non-IFRS Measures Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements This presentation contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the U.S. federal securities laws, which statements relate to our current expectations and views of future events. In some cases, these forward-looking statements can be identified by words or phrases such as "believe," "may," "might," "will," "expec ...