Will Selling NVDA H200 Chips to China Boost Bottom Line?

Core Insights - Nvidia has received approval to export H200 AI chips to China, with the U.S. government imposing a 25% fee on sales, an increase from the previously set 15% [2][3] - The H200 chip is significantly more powerful than the H20 model, which Nvidia had previously been limited to exporting [3] - Analysts are cautiously optimistic about the potential revenue impact, estimating an annual increase of $25 to $30 billion and an EPS impact of $0.60 to $0.70 [4] Revenue Impact - Nvidia reported export control impacts of approximately $4.6 billion in Q1 and $4 billion in Q2, with China historically accounting for 20-25% of its data center revenue [3] - Wells Fargo maintains an overweight rating on Nvidia, with a price target of $265, significantly above the current trading price of $184 [5] Market Reactions - Analysts from William Blair believe the new chip approvals could positively influence Nvidia's fiscal 2027 revenue expectations, but they are awaiting evidence of actual orders from China before adjusting forecasts [8] - Concerns remain regarding the approval process for Chinese customers and the management of the 25% revenue fee to the U.S. government [6] Competitive Landscape - AMD and Intel are also expected to benefit from the new export policies, with AMD already holding a license for its MI308X chip [7] - AMD's revenue guidance was previously cut by about $700 million for Q2 and $1.5 billion for the year due to export restrictions [7]