推动税收增长 与人口变化良性互动

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of demographic changes, particularly population aging, on tax revenue growth in China, emphasizing the need for policy adjustments to maintain tax bases and adapt to new economic realities [1][2][3]. Group 1: Population Dividend and Human Capital - China's large population creates a significant human capital base, which has been a source of economic value and tax revenue through various taxes such as value-added tax, corporate income tax, and personal income tax [2][3]. - The transition from a demographic dividend to a talent dividend is crucial for sustaining tax revenue growth as human capital becomes increasingly important in high-quality development [2][3]. Group 2: Challenges from Population Aging - By the end of 2024, over 220 million people in China will be aged 65 and above, accounting for 15.6% of the total population, posing challenges to tax revenue growth due to changes in labor supply and economic output [3][4]. - Aging leads to a reduction in the working-age population, increasing labor costs and compressing taxable profits, which negatively impacts corporate income tax revenue [3][4]. Group 3: Investment and Consumption Impacts - The rising proportion of retirees may decrease production investment, affecting value-added tax growth as older populations tend to spend on healthcare and basic services rather than productive investments [4][5]. - Changes in consumption patterns due to an aging population can limit the expansion of consumption tax bases, as older individuals have lower consumption elasticity and focus on essential spending [5][6]. Group 4: Policy Recommendations - To address the structural impacts of demographic changes on tax revenue, a comprehensive approach is needed, including optimizing tax sources, improving tax systems, and aligning industrial policies [6][7]. - Enhancing the adaptability of value-added tax to investment structure changes and reforming consumption tax to align with new consumption patterns are critical steps to maintain tax revenue [7][8]. - Strengthening the consistency of macroeconomic policies, including social and tax policies, is essential to create a dynamic balance between tax growth and demographic changes [8].