韩明年潜在增长率降至1.7%

Group 1 - The OECD projects South Korea's potential growth rate to decline to 1.71% in 2024, down from 1.92% in 2023, marking a decrease of 0.21 percentage points [1] - South Korea's ranking among 41 countries will drop from 16th in 2023 to 25th by 2027, lagging behind countries like Australia, Spain, and the United States [1] - The potential growth rate is expected to fall from 2.94% in 2016 to 1.71% by 2026, a decline of 1.23 percentage points, which is the second-largest drop among 14 countries with GDPs exceeding $1 trillion [1] Group 2 - The continuous decline in potential growth rate is attributed to structural factors such as decreasing birth rates, an aging population leading to a reduced workforce, and stagnation in key reforms in labor and education [2] - The OECD emphasizes the need for South Korea to accelerate labor market dual structure reforms, shift the compensation system from seniority-based to performance-based, and further reduce trade and foreign investment barriers to enhance growth potential [2] - Despite President Yoon Suk-yeol's declaration of 2024 as the "Year of Potential Growth Rate Rebound" and the intention to promote structural reforms in six key areas, specific implementation plans have yet to be announced [2]