Here are some of Nvidia's hurdles to revenues from H200 chip sales to China

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia faces significant challenges in realizing revenue from China despite recent approval for H200 chip sales, with potential legislative and market hurdles impacting growth prospects [1][2]. Group 1: Legislative and Regulatory Challenges - A bipartisan Senate bill could restrict export licenses for H200 and Blackwell chips for the next 30 months, posing a significant hurdle for Nvidia [2]. - The uncertainty surrounding Congress's stance on these export licenses raises questions about future revenue from China [3]. Group 2: Financial Implications - Nvidia's profit margins may be adversely affected by a 25% government surcharge on sales to China, leading to reduced earnings per dollar sold [3]. - Analysts express reluctance to adjust revenue models for Nvidia, with some assuming no revenue contribution from China due to these uncertainties [5]. Group 3: Market Competition and Supply Chain Issues - Advanced packaging capacity at Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) is already constrained, complicating Nvidia's ability to increase chip production for China [4]. - Chinese regulators are reportedly considering restrictions on H200 chips, as domestic alternatives are being developed by companies like Huawei, which could further limit Nvidia's market access [6].