Ge Long Hui·2025-12-09 21:55Core Viewpoint - In October, the retail sales growth of home appliances turned negative, and with the base of national subsidies leveling off and the intensity of support weakening, the demand for trade-in has been largely fulfilled. It is expected that home appliance consumption will face significant pressure in Q4, leading to a noticeable slowdown in the company's revenue from powered products. Consequently, revenue forecasts for Q4 and 2026 have been adjusted downward. Despite increased investment in new businesses such as Jingxi and international operations, the company anticipates a slight increase in losses from new businesses in Q4 [1][2]. Group 1 - The company is expected to achieve powered product revenue of 149.77 billion yuan in Q4, a year-on-year decrease of 14.0%, primarily due to the complete leveling off of the national subsidy base and a reduction in subsidy intensity [1]. - According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the retail sales of home appliance categories fell by 14.6% year-on-year in October, indicating overall pressure on the home appliance industry in Q4 [1]. - Despite the anticipated decline in powered product revenue, the company maintains a positive outlook on its significant supply advantages in powered categories and its strong brand presence among consumers [1]. Group 2 - The company is projected to achieve daily necessities revenue of 118.05 billion yuan in Q4, with a year-on-year growth of 10.5%, benefiting from strengthened consumer awareness [1]. - The company expects that the gross merchandise volume (GMV) from its third-party (3P) business will grow faster than its first-party (1P) business due to the slowdown in powered products [1]. - The company anticipates that losses from its new business segment will be 16.81 billion yuan in Q4, with a year-on-year increase of 188.6% in new business revenue, indicating ongoing investment in Jingxi and international operations [1]. Group 3 - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 to 1,304 billion yuan, 1,347.9 billion yuan, and 1,422 billion yuan, respectively, down from previous estimates [2]. - The adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are 26.3 billion yuan, 22.5 billion yuan, and 44.2 billion yuan, respectively, also revised downward from earlier predictions [2]. - Based on comparable companies, the target market value for the company is estimated at 502.3 billion yuan, corresponding to a target share price of 173.32 HKD, maintaining a "buy" rating [2].