飞天茅台批价2年跌43%！经销商躺赢神话破灭，潮水退去谁裸泳？

Core Viewpoint - The wholesale price of Feitian Moutai has significantly dropped to 1520 yuan per bottle, nearing the official guidance price of 1499 yuan, raising speculation about whether the manufacturer is controlling supply to maintain prices. However, the actual reason for the supply halt is that distributors have fulfilled their sales targets for 2025, negating the need for further shipments [2][3]. Price Trends - The wholesale price of Feitian Moutai was at 2678 yuan per bottle in December 2023, but has since fallen by approximately 43% to around 1520 yuan per bottle within two years. The retail prices consumers see online range from 1600 yuan to 1850 yuan [2][3]. - The price decline has been gradual, with the first signs of a price turning point noted four years ago. The price remained stable above 2600 yuan per bottle from 2021 to 2022, peaking above 3000 yuan [3][5]. Market Dynamics - The current market is characterized by a "temperature" of price decline, with distributors focusing on maintaining their "comprehensive cost line" to avoid losses. The comprehensive cost line for distributors is influenced by the sales of bundled products, which have seen price declines [5][10]. - The outturn price for Feitian Moutai was raised to 1169 yuan per bottle as of November 1, 2023, marking a 20% increase from the previous price of 969 yuan. This price adjustment reflects a broader trend of price increases across the industry [7]. Distributor Challenges - Distributors are facing pressure as the price of Feitian Moutai approaches the official guidance price, with some expressing concerns about their ability to sustain operations if prices continue to fall [15][16]. - The traditional role of distributors as "Moutai transporters" has diminished, with many now needing to adapt to a more competitive environment where they must create value beyond simple sales [11][17]. Future Outlook - There is uncertainty regarding whether the price of Feitian Moutai will drop below the official guidance price of 1499 yuan. Some distributors predict prices will stabilize around 1600 yuan before the Spring Festival, with a slight chance of approaching 1499 yuan afterward [15][16]. - Despite current challenges, there is a belief in the long-term demand for Moutai, with the potential for increased consumer interest as prices decline. The industry is expected to undergo a transformation where distributors will need to innovate and adapt to survive [16][17].