3 6 Ke·2025-12-09 23:13Core Viewpoint - The short drama industry, once seen as a growth variable by major video platforms, is now facing an unexpected downturn, despite visible incremental achievements in a fast-paced, fragmented era [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Dynamics - Major platforms like Youku, Tencent Video, and iQIYI have invested significant resources in the short drama market over the past year, but the results have been disappointing [3]. - The micro-short drama industry is projected to reach a scale of 63.43 billion yuan by 2025, with free micro-short dramas accounting for over 66% of the market [4][9]. - Leading short drama applications, including Hongguo Short Drama and Hippo Theater, have captured over 95% of the monthly active user penetration rate [4][9]. Group 2: Long Video Platforms' Strategies - Long video platforms have upgraded their strategies in the short drama space, with iQIYI launching a "Short Drama Hundred Plan" to bind talent and IP to the industry [5]. - Youku has restructured its approach by establishing a micro-short drama center and renaming its "short video" label to "short drama," significantly increasing its visibility [6]. - Tencent Video has aggressively entered the market with initiatives like the "Mars Short Drama Club" and a 5 million yuan incentive policy to boost horizontal short drama development [7]. Group 3: Market Competition - Despite the rapid actions of long video platforms, they struggle to compete with the explosive growth of short dramas, as evidenced by the rising monthly active users of platforms like Hongguo Short Drama, which reached 236 million [10]. - The production capacity for micro-short dramas is also increasing, with an estimated 36,951 micro-short dramas launched in 2024, averaging 3,000 per month [11]. Group 4: Content and User Engagement - Short dramas have seen significant success, with several achieving over 1 billion views, indicating a new standard for hit content [12]. - The core difference between long and short video platforms lies in their content approach; long video platforms focus on high-quality, in-depth narratives, while short dramas prioritize quick emotional engagement and rapid production cycles [17][18]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The industry is witnessing a trend of differentiation, with vertical short drama platforms like Hongguo performing well, while short video platforms like Douyin and Kuaishou have also seen significant user engagement [20]. - Long video platforms are not conceding defeat; they are exploring ways to integrate short dramas into their ecosystems while maintaining their unique advantages in content quality and production [22][23]. - The competition in the short drama market by 2025 will fundamentally be a clash of different content logics, business models, and organizational forms [24].