开工负荷持续下降 PTA反弹行情有望延续

Core Viewpoint - The PTA industry is currently experiencing low processing profits and operating rates, with a potential for short-term price support due to supply constraints [1][5]. Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The PTA industry is in a long-term oversupply situation, with domestic production capacity reaching 94.7 million tons and demand falling short at under 70 million tons [2]. - As of December 5, 2023, domestic PTA operating load was at 74.1%, down 11.26 percentage points year-on-year and 5.19 percentage points since the end of October [2]. - PTA processing fees have dropped to a historical low of 90 yuan/ton, with current raw material costs around 4,500 yuan/ton and average industry losses at approximately 280 yuan/ton [2]. Group 2: Inventory and Production Trends - PTA social inventory is approximately 3.1 million tons, down 6.02 thousand tons week-on-week, and significantly lower than the same period last year [3]. - The average available days of PTA factory inventory is about 3.92 days, slightly up from last year, while polyester factory PTA raw material inventory days are at 7.5 days, down 0.5 days year-on-year [3]. Group 3: Polyester Industry Outlook - Polyester operating load has increased to 89.39% as of December 5, 2023, but there are expectations for a decrease in load due to seasonal demand decline and high inventory levels [4]. - The inventory days for various polyester products have increased significantly compared to last year, indicating a substantial de-stocking pressure [4]. - Although the export environment for PTA has improved slightly with the removal of BIS certification requirements by India, the overall impact on PTA demand remains limited due to its small share in total demand [4]. Group 4: Overall Industry Condition - The PTA industry remains in a state of deep losses, with weak production willingness expected to continue, leading to sustained low operating loads and potential price support from the supply side [5]. - Despite the potential for price rebounds, the structural issue of long-term overcapacity in the PTA industry has not fundamentally changed, limiting the upward price movement [5].