“内外兼修”，阶段性供应宽松预期施压糖价

Core Viewpoint - Despite a slight upward trend in New York raw sugar futures prices since November, domestic sugar prices in China are underperforming, with market sentiment leaning towards pessimism regarding future trends [1] Group 1: Domestic Sugar Market Conditions - The domestic sugar market is experiencing a phase of supply easing as sugar factories in southern production areas accelerate their operations for the 2025/2026 crushing season, leading to cautious purchasing behavior from traders and food and beverage companies [1][2] - As of mid-November 2025, all old sugar stocks in Guangxi have been cleared, with 74 sugar factories expected to operate, maintaining the same level as the previous season [2] - The total planting area for sugarcane in Guangxi is projected to reach approximately 12.34 million acres, the highest level in nearly a decade, driven by government subsidies and stable cane prices [2] Group 2: Production and Yield Estimates - The average sugarcane yield in Guangxi is expected to recover to around 4.5 tons per acre, with total sugarcane crushing volume estimated between 55.35 million to 56 million tons, leading to a sugar production estimate of 6.8 million to 7 million tons, an increase of 340,000 to 540,000 tons compared to the previous season [3] - The sugar production rate in Guangxi is estimated to be between 12.3% and 12.5%, with a reported production of 133,900 tons by the end of November 2025, a decrease of 37,850 tons year-on-year [3] Group 3: National Sugar Production Outlook - The China Sugar Association anticipates that national sugar production for the 2025/2026 season will rebound to around 11.7 million tons, continuing a trend of recovery over the past three seasons [4] - However, challenges remain, including high import volumes of sugar solutions and premixed powders, which threaten the domestic sugar industry, as well as pressure on sugar farmers to increase production without corresponding income growth [4] Group 4: Global Sugar Market Trends - Globally, the main topic is increased production, particularly in India, where significant increases in sugarcane crushing and production are expected, leading to a more relaxed supply situation and limited upward pressure on sugar prices [5]