“内外兼修” 阶段性供应宽松预期施压糖价

Core Viewpoint - Despite a slight upward trend in New York raw sugar futures prices since November, domestic sugar prices in China are underperforming, with market sentiment leaning towards pessimism regarding future trends [1][4] Group 1: Domestic Sugar Market Conditions - The domestic sugar market is experiencing a phase of supply easing as sugar factories in southern production areas accelerate their operations for the 2025/2026 crushing season, leading to cautious purchasing behavior from traders and food and beverage companies [1][2] - As of mid-November 2025, all old sugar stocks in Guangxi have been cleared, with 74 sugar factories expected to operate, maintaining the same level as the previous season [2] - The total planting area for sugarcane in Guangxi is projected to reach approximately 12.34 million acres, the highest level in nearly a decade, driven by government subsidies and stable cane prices [2][3] Group 2: Production and Yield Estimates - The average sugarcane yield in Guangxi is expected to recover to around 4.5 tons per acre, with total sugarcane crushing volume estimated between 55.35 million and 56 million tons for the 2025/2026 season [3] - The sugar production in Guangxi is projected to be between 6.8 million and 7 million tons, an increase of 340,000 to 540,000 tons compared to the previous season [3] - The sugar production rate in Guangxi has decreased to 9.29%, down 1.63 percentage points year-on-year, with a total sugar output of 13.39 million tons reported by the end of November 2025, a decrease of 37.85 thousand tons year-on-year [3] Group 3: National Sugar Production Outlook - The China Sugar Association anticipates that national sugar production will continue to rise to around 11.7 million tons for the 2025/2026 season, following three consecutive seasons of recovery [4] - However, challenges remain, including high import volumes of sugar solutions and premixed powders, which threaten the domestic sugar industry, as well as pressure on sugar farmers to increase production without corresponding income growth [4] - In October 2025, sugar imports increased by 20.93 thousand tons year-on-year to 746.2 thousand tons, with a cumulative import of 3.9016 million tons from January to October, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 13.69% [4] Group 4: Global Sugar Market Trends - Globally, the main topic is increased production, particularly in India, where significant increases in sugarcane crushing and production are expected, leading to a more relaxed supply situation and limited upward pressure on sugar prices [5]